Résumé : The article analyzes the current situation of the gas market in Europe, marked by a new tension on prices. The stop of Russian gas transit via Ukraine, coupled with increased demand due to cold and drop in stocks, raises fears of a new prices.
The article underlines the persistent dependence of Europe to Russian gas, despite the efforts of diversification. It also highlights the role of the International Energy Agency (IAI) in the analysis of the situation and the formulation of forecasts.
Gas pressure
By Abdelkrim Zerzouri
At the beginning of the year, the difficulties of supplying gas from European countries returned to the scene, recalling the episode of 2022 where its price reached peaks of 340 euros per megawat hour (MWH). We are still far from this outbreak, with a price which has, anyway, climbed beyond the symbolic threshold of 50 euros, but the situation can quickly evolve towards greater tension on the world market.
Several factors strengthen apprehensions within the countries of the European Community, first of all, the judgment of the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine since January 1, 2025. Despite the war, Russia and Ukraine had signed in 2019 a Agreement allowing the delivery of Russian gas to European countries through infrastructure passing through Ukrainian soil, but Ukraine refused to renew this agreement, aimed through this decision a reduction in the Buildings of Russia.
Ukraine’s decision remains incomprehensible as long as it also penalizes the countries of the European Community, its greatest supporters in the war against Russia. Suddenly, the price of gas has recorded a significant increase, exceeding, in recent days, the threshold of 50 euros/MWh, a higher since October.
We know that Russian gas deliveries to Europeans have dropped since the bursting of the Ukraine war, in February 2022, Europeans having in this sense diversified import sources, mainly turning to Norway and the United States, which made it possible to lower the supply of Russian gas by 40 % to 8 % (according to figures for February 2023).
But dependence on Russian gas remains important, especially for certain countries of the European Union, such as Hungary, which has always refused to do without Russian gas. Another factor seems to be grafted for this rupture of gas supply via Ukraine, namely European stocks filled at almost 70 %, a rate of more than 10 % compared to the same period of the last year.
-Adding to this the climatic conditions characterized by an icy cold, which increases the demand for consumption of households, and we will have all the ingredients which promote tension on the global gas market. Thus, the question of the minds of European leaders, should we fear a flambée in gas prices in 2025?
According to experts, the outbreak is inevitable, because it takes up to 18 months for the situation on the world market to find a certain stability. An upward trend also confirmed by forecasting of the International Energy Agency (IAI) which, in a recent report, has confirmed that global natural gas consumption which has reached a historic record in 2024 should further increase in 2025, “mainly thanks to the rapid growth of Asian markets”.
The AIE report does not fail to emphasize that if the stop of the transit of Russian gas by Ukraine, on January 1, 2025, should not constitute an imminent risk for the security of the supply of the European Union , it could increase the importation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) of the EU and tighten the fundamentals of the market this year. ” So many turbulence that pull the prices of gas upwards.
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