“He will not be able to avoid a probably tense face to face with Vladimir Putin”

Robert’s question

“The primary question, will this president protect the integrity of UKRAINE? Will he destroy the mullahs’ regime in Iran for a democratic IRAN and therefore no more support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Houtis!“

Hello Robert,

It is, as you say, one of the fundamental questions, which will undoubtedly decide the more general course of his mandate. There remains great suspense over Trump’s intentions in Ukraine, which is shared between two partly contradictory intuitions. That of establishing a balance of power with the Russian strategic adversary, by massively arming Ukraine before any negotiations, an approach which is advised to him by the Reaganite camp, always present around him in the person of his Secretary of State. State Marco Rubio or his national security advisor Mike Walz, and that of “making peace”, a promise that Trump made to his Maga base electorate, and which consists of forcing Ukraine into major concessions to find a supposed compromise with Poutine.

Exhausted by decades of wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East that were inconclusive and shed blood, America no longer wants to be the world’s policeman. This explains the strength of this isolationist impulse, which is represented at the top of power by the camp of JD Vance, Donald Trump Jr and Tulsi Gabbard. But the great difficulty that Trump will encounter is that Putin has not abandoned his war aims: to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty which he does not recognize and to change the European, and more broadly, international, order which emerged after 1991. Signing peace with him without protecting Ukraine will only strengthen his appetites.

On Iran and its proxies, Trump will have a very firm approach, and much clearer support for Netanyahu. Will he go so far as to try to overthrow the Mullahs’ regime? It’s not safe. But he will try to resurrect the Abraham Accords and push for the great Israel-Saudi Arabia rapprochement, which was underway before the October 7 attack, in order to weaken Tehran.

Laure Mandeville