Europe’s concern about the return of Donald Trump is expressed unofficially. Latest example: the leaked remarks of the German ambassador to the United States evoking the “spirit of revenge” which would animate the American president. But a few hours before the inauguration of the Republican magnate, a spokesperson for the European Central Bank (ECB) openly said he feared “a trade war” with the United States, made inevitable if Trump puts his threats to execution.
Because like China, Mexico or Canada, Europe could suffer from the start of its presidency a salvo of punitive customs duties intended to allow the Americans to rebalance their trade deficit with the Old Continent. And even more than this renewed protectionism, it is the animosity of the new administration in Washington which questions Europeans, already stunned by the contemptuous remarks of Elon Musk and his crude interference on their political stages.
Vassalization project
“Musk’s support for the far right threatens democracy,” underlines Chancellor Olaf Scholz, outraged by the platform offered on his social network to the head of the AfD – the German extremist party of Alice Weidel – by the principal Trump ally. Very readable, the project of the “Trusk” tandem vis-à-vis the European Union is clear: ignore Brussels, support nationalist and extremist parties, play the capitals against each other, sow discord and ultimately, vassalize Europe.
A strong European reaction is necessary, but it is clear that the unity necessary to achieve this is far from obvious. The pro-Russian current embodied by the Hungarian Viktor Orban is rather on the rise while an Atlanticist leader like Giorgia Meloni has already shown that she is ready to deal with Donald Trump to the detriment of European solidarity. However, this is essential to prevent the economic and technological gap, already yawning, from widening further to the benefit of the United States.
-The Ukrainian revealer
Will the transatlantic alliance survive? Faced with the mixture of economic protectionism and neo-imperialism that Trump advocates, the question of Ukraine will be revealing. On February 3, EU leaders, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the Secretary General of NATO have planned an exceptional meeting dedicated to European defense. With the underlying theme, the ability to assume a form of American withdrawal in aid to Ukraine and the protection of the Old Continent.
However, if European aid to the Ukrainians has, since February 2022, been largely equivalent to that of the United States, it is partly dependent on the latter, for example when it comes to exporting equipment including components Americans. As for the security guarantees that Europe could offer to Ukraine – and to itself – as part of a peace negotiation with Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky has already warned that they “would not be enough “, and that the unpredictable Donald Trump held the key.
