In just 10 days, from 1is As of January 10, many towns in the northern half of France beat the average cumulative rainfall for the month of January, announced Météo France. For the moment, the year 2025 seems to begin exactly as the year 2024 ended: underwater! Are we heading towards serial floods like in 2024?
Numerous floods have already occurred in Oise, Val d’Oise, Aisne, Eure and Ille-et-Vilaine. An improvement has taken place in recent days, with the return of fine cold and dry weather linked to the anticyclone. Good news for residents affected by the floods, the next three months promise to be drier than average, but also milder.
The two major forecasting organizations weather reportweather report who monitor seasonal forecasts in France generally agree on their results: The Weather Channel believes that “ THE precipitationprecipitationquite close to the averages over the three months, would become deficit in February-March, indicating a slowdown in rainy episodes thanks to more lasting anticyclonic sequences “. Météo Villes predicts dry weather at the end of January, then more unsettled and humid weather in February before returning to calm weather in March. Copernicus, the European climate monitoring body, estimates that a large southern half will be affected by drier than normal weather until April, but does not comment on the northern half.
The soils remain very sensitive to the slightest rain
If these long-term forecasts are confirmed, the main problem will be mainly linked to the state of the soil: “ The soils are significantly wetter than normal. In places, they have never been as humid as at the beginning of January. This caused an “almost generalized” reaction in waterways », specifies Météo France. It will therefore only take a few days of moderate to heavy rain to cause further flooding.
