THE prix rapeseed on Euronext and the markets French physical figures progressed significantly between the sessions of December 31 and January 1 with the support of theeuro facing the dollar.
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On the CBOT in Chicago, the courses of military progressed slightly in a volatile market to start the year 2025. In fact, the market was torn between the good outlook for harvest au Brazil and concerns about the Argentinian weather despite some rain locally. In Brazil, the StoneX firm shows its optimism with an estimate of production of soybeans up by 5 Mt to 171.4 Mt. This revision is explained by surfaces larger than expected and the prospect of good yields.
Au Canadathe canola in Winnipeg started the year on the rise, driven by the increase in soybeans but limited by the decline in palm and soybean oils. In fact, thesoybean oil on the CBOT remains penalized by the uncertainties concerning the future policy of Donald Trump about the biofuels.
The prices ofpalm oil Malaysian companies in Kula Lumpur started 2025 with a significant drop in their prices. The difficulties of setting up the biofuel B40 in Indonesia and seasonal weakness in demand are weighing down the market. In addition, the situation of soybean oil in the United States is not favorable in the oil market. Indeed, the support of UNITED STATES on biofuels could be called into question from January 20, the date of the inauguration of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States. On the other hand, the USDA published figures higher than expected on the trituration of soybeans in the United States for the month of November.
In Francethe prices of rapeseed on Euronext and the French physical market closed significantly higher. The market for oilseed found support on the futures market with the notable progression of oil and the further decline of the euro against the dollar.
The prices of sunflower on the French market are progressing in the wake of rapeseed in the absence of a business flow for this end of the holiday period.
On the macroeconomic side, theeuro falls back facing the dollar with a parity of $1.027 due to the imminent return of Donald Trump at the White House. In Europe, industrial recovery is struggling to take shape, which leaves little room for an increase in interest rate. In this context, the gap between the euro and the dollar could continue to widen.
On the side ofenergythe oil shows further progress. The market is hoping for a recovery in demand from China. In addition, Donald Trump's statements against green energies support the price of oil in New York.
Fundamentals:
- Brazil, soy, production : 171.4 Mt against 166.2 Mt previously (StoneX)
- United States, soya, crushing : 210 million bushels in November above expectations (USDA)
Commerce international :
- Brazil, soy, exports : 107 Mt for the 2024-2025 campaign (StoneX)
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French physical markets from January 2, 2025 (July base for cereals)
| Sunflower | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux rendering | oleic Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 640,00 | N | 10,00 |
| Rendered Saint-Nazaire | oleic Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 640,00 | N | 10,00 |
| Rapeseed | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rendering Rouen | Harvest 2024 | Apr-June | 520,00 | N | 12,00 |
| Fob Moselle | Harvest 2024 | Apr-June | 522,00 | N | 12,00 |
| Soybean meals | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Departure Montoir | 48% pellets Brazil | Jan. | 389,00 | V | 6,00 |
| 48% pellets Brazil | February 3 | 389,00 | V | 7,00 |
| Then | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Departure from Marne | forage Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 295,00 | V | 0,00 |
| Departure from Somme/Oise | forage Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 295,00 | V | 0,00 |
Commercial quotations for dairy products from January 2, 2025
| Milk powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBPL departure at 30 days 5% H BT bulk | available. | 2490,00 | N |
| Whey powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBPL departure at 30 days, BILA pH 6 bulk | available. | 865,00 | N |
Dollar/euro evolution of January 2, 2025
| Devise | Closing value |
|---|---|
| 1 dollar US | 0,9689 euro |
| 1 euro | 1,0321 dollar |
Chicago Futures Market Close January 2, 2025
| Raw materials | Fence | Chicago |
|---|---|---|
| Military | 999,50 | cents/wood. |
| Soybean meals | 310,90 | $/t |
| Soybean oil | 39,72 | cts/livre |
Closing of the Euronext futures market on January 2, 2025
| Colza (Euronext) | |
|---|---|
| Echéance | Fence |
| Feb. 2025 | 524,25 |
| May 2025 | 520,75 |
| August 2025 | 475,50 |
| Volume | 17747 |
| Rapeseed oil (Euronext) | |
|---|---|
| Echéance | Fence |
| Mars 2023 | 698,50 |
| June 2023 | 698,50 |
| Sept. 2023 | 698,50 |
| Volume | 0 |
| Rapeseed meal (Euronext) | |
|---|---|
| Echéance | Fence |
| Mars 2023 | 196,25 |
| June 2023 | 196,25 |
| Sept. 2023 | 196,25 |
| Volume | 0 |
International market quotes from January 2, 2025
| Energy | Echéance | Closing value |
|---|---|---|
| Oil (Nymex) | Feb. 2025 | 73,13 $ |
| Ocean freight indices | from January 2 | Variation |
|---|---|---|
| Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 1029 | 32,00 |
| Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) | 1000 | 12,00 |
| Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) | 1261 | 114,00 |
| Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) | 899 | -24,00 |
| Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) | 554 | -15,00 |
