The latest analysis from TrendForce https://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/2/12214.html indicates a broad-based decline in DRAM prices for the first quarter of 2025, with standard DRAM products expected to fall by 8-13%. Once HBM products are added to the equation, the overall market decline seems a little less steep, in the range of 0-5%.
PC DRAM is the hardest hit, with projections pointing to an 8-13% decline. The drop is driven by an aggressive inventory reduction that began in late 2024, lower demand in end markets, increased DDR4 production by Chinese manufacturers, and a glut of cheap chips floating on the market in cash.
Server DRAM prices are expected to fall by 5-10%, partly due to weak seasonal demand. To add to the pressure, manufacturers have shifted much of their production from DDR4 to DDR5, and some of HBM’s capacity has made the same switch, further increasing supply.
When it comes to mobile devices, smartphone makers continue to err on the side of caution in their purchasing plans, even though inventory levels have largely stabilized. Contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X memory are expected to drop by 8-13% and 3-8%, respectively.
Graphics DRAMs are expected to decline by 5-10%, mainly because demand remains rather lukewarm. Even stockpiling GDDR7 for upcoming GPUs is not enough to keep prices stable. Consumer DRAMs are also seeing big price reductions: DDR3 is expected to drop 3-8% and DDR4 is expected to see a bigger drop of 10-15%.
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