The Russian army has advanced almost 4,000 km into Ukraine2 in 2024 facing Ukrainians in difficulty, seven times more than in 2023, and the coming year looks uncertain for kyiv, particularly due to questions about the sustainability of American support.
For weeks, speculation has been rife about possible future peace talks, after nearly three years of a war that has left hundreds of thousands dead and injured on both sides.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he wanted “a just peace” in 2025, but his country is ending the year on the defensive, facing a Russian army which is advancing despite significant losses.
The consequences for Ukrainians remain immense: millions of displaced people and refugees, and incessant Russian bombings, particularly those targeting energy infrastructure, regularly plunging civilians into darkness and cold.
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the progress of his troops in mid-December, ensuring he had “the initiative” at the end of a “pivotal” year.
In detail, his men advanced 3,985 km2 in 2024, according to AFP’s analysis of data provided by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as of December 30.
That is almost seven times more than in 2023 (584 km2).
Less numerous and less armed, the Ukrainian forces have been retreating at an accelerated pace since this fall, particularly in the East: November (725 km2) and October (610 km2) were the two months in which the Russian army took the most territory since March 2022 and the first weeks of the invasion.
“Achieving Peace”
In this context, many unanswered questions remain.
The coming year “will determine who wins,” the Ukrainian president warned in November, hoping to achieve a “just peace” in 2025.
In kyiv, his wish is shared by the population: “I want peace to finally be achieved for Ukraine, for people to stop dying,” Kateryna Tchemeryz, a teacher, told AFP.
“Everyone has only one wish, one dream: that Ukraine wins and that all our territories are reconquered,” insists Tetiana, a civil servant who did not wish to give her last name. .
And this, while Russia already occupies nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory and the return to power in the United States on January 20 of the unpredictable Donald Trump further increases uncertainty.
“I feel a certain anxiety,” admits Kateryna Tchemeryz, the American president-designate having called for an “immediate” ceasefire and promised to obtain a peace agreement, without ever detailing his plan.
However, the United States is Ukraine’s largest donor and arms supplier, and a reduction in this aid could have immense consequences.
However, it is out of the question for Volodymyr Zelensky that an agreement could be reached without the approval of kyiv. He always asks for security guarantees for his country before any negotiations with Moscow.
On his sleeve, he benefits from the fact that his army has occupied several hundred square kilometers of the Russian region of Kursk since August, a thorn in the side of Vladimir Putin.
But the latter now has the support of thousands of North Korean soldiers. It has also increased the threats of world war, if the West strengthens its support for Ukraine, with more longer-range missiles.
Russian and Ukrainian strikes
The master of the Kremlin still demands the surrender of Ukraine, its renunciation of NATO membership and the Ukrainian territories it annexed.
In a brief speech to mark the New Year, Mr. Putin saluted “our fighters”, and his Defense Minister, Andrei Beloussov, praised the “exceptional heroism and bravery” of Russian soldiers.
During the night from Monday to Tuesday, Ukraine was again targeted by 21 missiles and around forty attack drones, of which seven and 16 respectively were able to be shot down. The Russian army claimed to have struck “a military airfield and an enterprise of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex”.
On the Russian side, a Ukrainian drone attack caused a fuel fire in an oil depot in the Smolensk region, 500 km as the crow flies from kyiv, according to the regional governor.
