At the dawn of 2025, the announced stoppage of Russian gas transit via Ukraine is exacerbating energy tensions in Eastern Europe. While some countries are preparing costly alternatives, others are trying to maintain their ties with Moscow, between geopolitical constraints and economic issues.
Ukraine will stop allowing the transit of Russian gas to Europe in a few days, a decision confirmed by President Volodymyr Zelensky. This measure will mainly affect Slovakia, Moldova and, to a lesser extent, Hungary, where Russian gas remains a key energy source. However, transit via Ukraine still represented nearly 14.65 billion m³ in 2023, or half of Russian exports to Europe.
This volume is crucial for countries like Slovakia, which depends on these cheaper supplies.
“Bratislava prefers to import Russian gas because it is cheaper,” explains Alexander Duleba, a foreign policy researcher.
Moldova in a state of energy emergency
Moldova is already preparing for power cuts. Its dependence on Russian gas, which supplies 70% of its electricity via the Cuciurgan power plant, complicates diversification efforts. “The Kremlin uses energy as a tool of blackmail,” denounced President Maia Sandu, citing risks of destabilization a few months before the legislative elections. Faced with the emergency, Moldova will obtain electricity from Romania, but at a high cost.
Hungary plays the pragmatic card
Hungary, less affected thanks to the TurkStream gas pipeline, does not remain indifferent. Viktor Orban mentioned a “trick” to get around the Ukrainian cut: buy Russian gas before it enters Ukrainian territory. “Once in Ukraine, he would no longer be Russian but Hungarian,” he said. However, this strategy could strengthen Hungarian dependence on Gazprom, placing Budapest out of step with European ambitions to reduce Russian energy dependence.
An energy divide in Europe
While Austria has taken the lead in terminating its historic contract with Gazprom, other countries such as Slovakia are trying to maintain their partnership, despite the risk of instability. “It all depends on the Ukrainians,” recalls Andras Deak, expert at Ludovika University in Budapest.
Sami Nemli With Agency / ECO Inspirations
