The decline in greenhouse gas emissions in France is showing signs of weakness. If 2023 had recorded a historic decline, 2024 stands out for a worrying slowdown, aggravated by sectoral increases in the third quarter.
Citepa announced a 0.5% increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. This rebound contrasts with the drops of 5% and 2.2% recorded respectively in the first two quarters. Over the first nine months of the year, the overall reduction stands at -2.4%, a rate much lower than that of 2023 (-6%). The data reveals marked sectoral disparities. While industry and energy production confirm their driving role (-12.9%), construction (+11.8%) and road transport (+1.1%) show a recovery in emissions. The latter is explained in particular by an increase in the use of heating systems in September.
Transport: insufficient commitments
Transport remains the Achilles heel of the French climate strategy. “Companies must play their role in renewing automobile fleets,” declared Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Ecological Transition. She recalled that purchases of electric vehicles by businesses remain two times lower than those of households. A tightening of the rules is being studied to accelerate this transition.
Encouraging signs to qualify
Among the positive signals, domestic air transport continues its decline, with a 4.1% decrease in emissions in the third quarter. The decarbonization of electricity is increasing, thanks to less dependence on fossil fuels. However, the manufacturing industry is seeing its progress slow down: after a drop of -2.8% in the second quarter, the reduction falls to -1.3%.
Climate objectives: room for maneuver is narrowing
The draft National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC 3) sets ambitious objectives: an annual reduction of 4.7% in emissions until 2030 to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. With a current trajectory of -3.1% on rolling twelve months, France will have to intensify its efforts, particularly in construction and transport, to avoid a further delay in its European commitments.
Sami Nemli With Agency / ECO Inspirations
Swiss
