Aurélien Pradié is running for re-election as a member of parliament for Lot in the 2024 legislative elections. But can the man who left the Republicans party hope to be re-elected? And with what result?
A historic member of the traditional right, Aurélien Pradié decided to break with the Les Républicains party just a few days before the first round of the legislative elections. But he has not given up on possible re-election as a deputy during the elections this Sunday June 30 and that of July 7: he is an independent candidate in the 1st constituency of Lot. The ex-LR who does not deny his values and his political ideas by leaving the party, on the contrary according to him it is a way of remaining faithful to them while “the LR party is dead” after the alliance concluded by the challenged President Eric Ciotti and the National Rally.
Aurélien Pradié therefore presents himself as a right-wing Gaullist candidate independent of the LR – who in fact no longer have a candidate in the constituency – and is opposed to the National Rally as well as the New Popular Front, more particularly La France insoumise, which he describes two “extremes” in La Dépêche: “Mélenchon and Le Pen being two sides of the same coin”. The Lot deputy also wants to offer another voice to Emmanuel Macron’s politics. He recognizes that the initiative is risky but believes that “the time has come for political adventurers” and that this adventure “should not worry, it must reassure and enthuse those who, in my political family, still want to believe in it” .
A sudden and definitive departure from LR
The announcement dealt a new blow to the party of the traditional right: Aurélien Pradié, former number two of the party, slammed the door of the Republicans on Wednesday, June 26, just a few days before the legislative elections. The Lot MP, candidate for re-election, assured La Dépêche that his departure is final, because the party “is no longer capable of speaking to the French”. “LR is dead” goes so far as to say the Lotois.
Aurélien Pradié is therefore presenting himself as an independent candidate under the label of his micro-party “Du Courage” created during the last regional elections, which aims to become more political according to its founder, even if it does not doesn’t specify how. Aurélien Pradié is not the only one to have freed himself from LR. He assures that 30 candidates, including ten outgoing, in France not to attach themselves to LR chaired by Eric Ciotti, but to his micro-party. And he calls on the LRs who disagree with Ciotti to take their independence with him or elsewhere.
What result for Aurélien Pradié in the legislative elections?
During the 2022 legislative elections, Aurélien Pradié largely won in both rounds against his competitors, including that of the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (Nupes), the left-wing alliance of the time. He obtained 45.46% of the votes against 22.26% for the left-wing candidate then with 64.63% in the second round against 35.37%. A better score than the one that allowed him to be elected during his first election in 2017: he then came second behind the majority candidate in the first round (24.64% against 28.67%) but the narrowly won in the second round with 51.32% of the votes.
But the National Rally made progress in the 1st constituency of Lot and won the European elections on June 9. The far right obtained 27.42% of the votes, while the Republican Party only came in fourth position with 7.14% of the votes behind the Socialist Party (18.73%) and the presidential majority ( 13.04%).
Aurélien Pradié could therefore have competition against the candidates of the National Rally, the Union of the Left and the presidential majority. Especially since he finds himself without a label, but despite his departure from the party the voters of Lot place the elected official on the political spectrum and know him, which gives an advantage to the outgoing deputy.
What did the polls say about the legislative elections?
The results of the polls on the legislative elections which could be published until midnight on Friday June 28 were not optimistic with the traditional right. They put the far right in the lead with more than a third of the voting intentions. This was followed by the union of the left around 30%, the presidential majority around 20% when the right apart from the pro-Ciotti Republicans allied with the extreme right below the 10% mark.
These polls reflect trends observed at a specific moment, but cannot be considered as accurate predictions of legislative results. Especially since the polls are carried out at the national level while the legislative elections are more like 577 local elections.
