” A desaster “, “bad in form and substance”, “the worst performance in history”…Political analysts like Joe Biden’s own advisers are not kind to the American president. His performance against his rival Donald Trump was considered disastrous, during the first televised debate of the campaign, this Thursday, June 27, 2024.
The 81-year-old candidate emerged extremely weakened. To the point that the question of maintaining his candidacy for a second term seriously arises in his own camp. The American newspaper New York Times even called on Joe Biden to give way to a younger Democratic candidate before the next presidential election, scheduled for November 5, 2024.
But what would happen if he agreed to step down? What procedure would be put in place? And who could take up the torch? Here are some answers.
Read also: INTERVIEW. US presidential election: “The best scenario would be for Joe Biden to resign”
Who would be responsible for nominating a new candidate?
If Joe Biden actually decided to throw in the towel, this would open the way to an unprecedented scenario four months before the elections. Having already won the primaries and caucuses organized in each state in February and March, the outgoing president should logically be nominated by his party during the Democratic convention which will take place in Chicago from August 19 to 22. According to the latest count of Associated Press he in fact has the support of 3,894 delegates, much more than the 1,976 necessary for a majority.
In case of withdrawal, as explained France info all delegates awarded to Joe Biden would become “uncommitted” and would have to support another candidate of their choice. “The convention would become a campaign in its own right, likely to expose divisions within the Democratic Party », notes the Wall Street Journal .
During this convention, the place would then be open to all, as noted ABC News . The only rule being “that a majority of party members vote for a candidate”.
Such a scenario has not occurred for about sixty years, the conventions having become a simple recording chamber for the results of the primary. Except in 1976, during the Republican convention which pitted Gerald Ford against Ronald Reagan.
Is Vice President Kamala Harris the favorite?
It all depends on the scenario. If Joe Biden were to resign before the end of his term, it would logically be his vice-president Kamala Harris, aged 59, who would take his place. Which would give her a boulevard towards the presidential election.
“No other democrat would dare to compete against her, says Romuald Sciora, director of the Iris Political and Geostrategic Observatory of the United States. We would have a woman president of the United States overnight, which would create great momentum in her favor. She could be carried by a wave which would give her a good chance of beating Donald Trump. »
On the other hand, if Joe Biden refuses to leave the White House, the legitimacy of his vice-president will be less assured. “She risks seeing other Democrats decide to run against her. And many Democrats in Joe Biden’s entourage would do anything to block Kamala Harris’ path before the convention. »
Who else could take Joe Biden’s place?
Until now, Joe Biden’s withdrawal had been so unlikely that no other Democrat had dared to come out of the woodwork. But this prospect is starting to spark vocations. “If Biden decides this week to withdraw, there will be candidates. There are many “says Reed Brody, a former Democratic Party official, to France info .
Certain personalities are naturally anticipated. Le Figaro notes that former candidate Hillary Clinton has made several public appearances in recent weeks, suggesting a potential candidacy. A judged track ” absurd “ by political scientist Nicole Bacharan: “She is no longer old enough and has already had her chance twice”, she recalls. The name of Michelle Obama is also circulating. “A fantasy of panicked Democrats”judges this expert.
Among the party’s heavyweights, California Governor Gavin Newsom stands out. His debate last year against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis gave the former San Francisco mayor presidential stature.
The Guardian also quotes JB Pritzker, governor of Illinois, “one of the richest candidates”who enshrined abortion rights in Illinois, championed gun control and legalized recreational marijuana. Or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, and Dean Phillips, a candidate in the Democratic primaries against Joe Biden.
A list far from exhaustive. The patriarch’s signs of weakness have not finished whetting appetites…
