Several polls have sometimes overestimated the alliance of the extreme right by up to 37% of voting intentions. According to the final results of the first round, the pact between the RN and the “ciottist” candidates allowed them to obtain 33.15% of the votes.
As the official results from the Ministry of the Interior came in, many left-wing voters tried to console themselves on Monday, July 1, by noting that the National Rally ultimately won less than 30% of the vote (29.25%), and that it was closely followed by the New Popular Front (27.99%). That is a difference of 402,616 votes and 1.26%.
This percentage of the RN does not include the 3.90% of votes granted to the Union of the Far Right, the terminology chosen by the Ministry of the Interior to designate the LR loyal to Eric Ciotti in his alliance with the National Rally. Thanks to this contract, the renegade boss of LR and his right-wing allies were able to run without an RN candidate facing them.
This alliance of the extreme right accounts for 33.15% of the votes cast. This is a much more marked gap with the union of the left of 5.16%.
Several polls gave the bloc around Jordan Bardella 37%.
However, it is also true that during the weeks following the dissolution of the National Assembly and the legislative campaign, several polls tended to overestimate the RN (or its alliance with Eric Ciotti’s right).
From June 17 and the beginning of the official election campaign for the first round, polling institutes began to express the voting intentions of the alliance with the “ciottistes”. Among the twenty or so polls documented by the Huffington Postthe Polling Commission or even Wikipedia, we note that the polling institutes estimated that the pact made between the RN and its allies would allow them to obtain between 32% (Cluster 17 of June 21) and 37% of voting intentions.
The RN is sometimes overestimated by almost 5%
Five polls have placed the union of the extreme right at 37%. Giving the opportunity to certain media outlets such as the echoes to estimate June 28 “the RN stronger than ever”. The newspaper then relied on an Opinion Way poll, which put the far-right bloc at 37%.
On three occasions (June 24, June 26 and June 28), the Harris Interactive institute also estimated Bardella’s union with her right-wing partners at 37%. Marine Le Pen’s party, alone, was even given 34% of voting intentions, almost 5% more than its final result, during the last two waves of polls. Two weeks before the first round, on June 17, Ifop also estimated this bloc at 37% (33% RN for the RN and 4% for the LR supported by Eric Ciotti).
