One of the first victims of Thursday’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is Ukraine.
Barring a miraculous turnaround, such as both Biden and Kamala Harris withdrawing from the presidential race, it is Trump who will become the next president of the United States.
A new Trump presidency will have disastrous implications for both Ukraine and Europe.
During the debate, Biden warned that Vladimir Putin would not stop at Ukraine and would seek to conquer the former republics of Eastern Europe.
This position is the consensus among specialists on the subject.
On Thursday evening, Trump once again bragged about being able to force the Ukrainian and Russian governments to negotiate peace.
But he also made it clear through his silences and facial expressions that he wanted to withdraw the United States from NATO.
1) What is the role of the United States in NATO?
The United States and Western Europe have cooperated closely militarily since World War II. After the fall of the USSR, this cooperation extended to the rest of Europe, with the exception of a few countries, such as Russia. And yet, even Putin’s Russia has considered joining NATO. The United States is of course the keystone of NATO. Without the United States, the alliance would be a shadow of its former self. Its collapse would lead its members to enter into dubious alliances with Russia or China.
2) Are NATO members aware of the threat?
NATO members are partly aware of this threat. It is to deal with it that the former Prime Minister of Holland, Mark Rutte, has just been chosen as the new NATO Secretary. Rutte has an excellent reputation as a negotiator. But above all, he is said to be respected by Trump.
3) What about anti-Americanism?
Several European parties are rejoicing at the prospect of a weakening of the United States’ military presence in Europe. The very left-wing parties, once completely subservient to Moscow, have retained a whiff of primary anti-Americanism. This is, for example, the position of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and La France Insoumise. Marine Le Pen’s radical right is also leaning in this direction, but for opposite reasons. Jordan Bardella, the prime minister expected from this wing, has publicly admitted his ideological proximity and his sympathy for Trump, while assuring that France would not leave NATO’s integrated command as long as the war in Ukraine lasts.
4) Can Rutte convince Trump?
NATO led by Rutte is therefore at a crucial moment in its existence. In his petty accountant logic, Trump boasted about making NATO member countries pay more money. He also denounced the $200 billion in aid that Washington sent to Ukraine, without understanding that a huge part of this money was going back into the American military-industrial complex. The same logic applies to the money that the United States is injecting into NATO. Will Rutte manage to convince Trump to stay in NATO and spend as much as before? It is doubtful, especially since Trump’s policies will increase the American deficit.
5) Why is Ukraine at risk of major weakening?
A US withdrawal from NATO would likely lead to the collapse of the coalition behind Ukraine. And a forced peace with Russia would be only temporary. Many European leaders, especially in Western Europe, are under illusions about their own military capabilities and Putin’s intentions.
