Interest in these legislative elections continues to rise. Four days before the first round, the Ministry of the Interior has counted nearly 2.125 million proxies since June 10. A figure which is already twice as high as the total number of proxies during the first round of the 2022 legislative elections (1.02 million).
“The strong demand for proxies is consistent with all the indicators that show that since the dissolution of the National Assembly, the French want to participate in this great democratic moment because the stakes are unprecedented,” explains Erwan Lestrohan, consulting director at the Odoxa polling institute. “This is the first time since 1997 that the French have been able to change their majority during a term of office. These numerous proxies are all the more important because they were made in a very short time, 15 days. It is said that the French no longer feel concerned by politics, this is not correct. They feel less and less connected to the parties, but when they can exercise their right to vote at important moments, they are present.”
Is this high number of proxies linked to the calendar with a second round falling on the first weekend of the school holidays? “Not necessarily,” replies Erwan Lestrohan, “because this type of calendar is not new. We have already experienced presidential elections on bridges in May without the same enthusiasm. »
Towards strong participation
These proxy data confirm that there will be a high turnout in these legislative elections. “We will be closer to the 68% turnout in the 1997 legislative elections than to the 51% turnout in the 2024 European elections,” explains the pollster.
A strong turnout that is already confirmed among French people living outside France. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 410,000 of them voted online for the first round of these legislative elections – online voting was open to them between Tuesday and Thursday noon – while there were 250,000 in the last legislative elections in 2022. An influx of voters that even caused problems accessing the online voting portal. French people living outside France will also be able to vote by mail, proxy or at a polling station on Sunday.
This strong turnout will benefit all political camps…
This strong mobilization should not concern a particular electorate. “Each of the political forces has seen its electoral base strengthened since the European elections. The RN, the left and the presidential camp have reserves of votes even if this is a little less true for Renaissance because the profile of the Frenchman who systematically votes corresponds to the Macronist voter. In any case, this increase in participation in the legislative elections should occur in all categories of society, whether among young people or those over 65, in rural communities or in metropolises.”
…but especially at the National Rally
“However, high participation in the legislative elections should further favor the National Rally, because it will lead to many triangulars in the second round (with three candidates) because it is necessary to collect 12.5% of the votes of those registered to qualify. The absence of withdrawal in certain triangulars will benefit the RN. » In the last legislative elections 2022, where participation was 47%, there were 8 constituencies with triangulars in the second round. “This time, we are planning between 120 and 170 constituencies with triangular ones, due to this participation. »
