According to estimates from Citepa, the organization responsible for drawing up France’s carbon footprint, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions recorded a drop of 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023, the ministry announced. of the Ecological Transition this June 26. Over the whole of 2023, GHG emissions had already fallen by 5.8% compared to the previous year, with a total equivalent of 373 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (Mt CO2e) released in atmosphere, Citepa announced at the end of May (read our article).
Quantification of emissions, excluding carbon sinks
“It shows that there is a dynamic that is underway,” welcomed the Minister of Ecological Transition Christophe Béchu on France Bleu. “The second positive element in all this is that all sectors are declining: energy thanks to the increase in hydroelectricity production and thanks to nuclear power, but also transport which was the area in which we had the most harm,” he added. “This is proof that some of the measures we have taken are working,” underlined the minister a few days before the first round of the legislative elections.
Over twelve rolling months, the drop reached 5.5%, specifies Citepa in its quarterly report. These provisional figures are only gross emissions, not taking into account part of the emissions from agriculture, waste and especially the absorption of CO2 by forests and soils, the main carbon sinks whose quality deteriorates over time. due to the already visible effects of global warming. The emissions counted include activities on national territory, but not those linked to imports or international transport, which generally add 60% to the total carbon footprint, according to the High Council for the Climate.
Significant decrease in the energy sector
In detail, by sector, it is energy that contributes the most to decarbonization, “with a drop in emissions of 16.8%”, or -2 Mt CO2e due to the increased use of nuclear power (+13% ) or hydraulics (+48%) to generate electricity, and, at the same time, a drop in the production of thermal power plants using fossil fuels (-31% compared to the start of 2023).
Buildings (-7.1%), or -1.6 Mt CO2e, and industry (-5.6%), or -1.1 Mt CO2e, are also in decline, driven on the one hand by the drop in heating emissions (-7.8%) due to “an overall milder quarter than last year and the continuation of sober behavior”, underlines the ministry, and on the other hand by the efforts of sectors such as agri-food (-9.3%), construction (-7.6%) and paper and cardboard (-7.6%).
Transport, the largest emitting sector, remains on a lesser decline (-3%, or -0.9 Mt CO2e), but in line with that of last year, driven by the decrease in emissions associated with diesel vehicles and French air transport (-2.8%). Emissions linked to international transport, which are not included in the total of this assessment, remain up by 8.2%.
Economic setbacks?
However, many environmental NGOs have been pointing out for months that these declines could only be cyclical, due in particular to milder winters and the economic slowdown. The High Council for the Climate, however, estimated that up to two thirds of last year’s drop in emissions could be attributed to public climate policy.
France, which must align with the European objective of -55% emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 and which aims for carbon neutrality in 2050, had failed to respect its first carbon budget (2015-2018) and had revised its ambitions downward in 2019. The results of the 2nd National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) should be drawn up in 2025. But according to the ministry, according to provisional data for 2023, the carbon budget for 2019-2023 in gross should be respected with a margin of 100 Mt CO2e over the period. But on net, that is to say taking into account the contribution of carbon sinks, the objectives could however be more difficult to achieve.
As for the 3rd SNBC, announced a few months ago as “imminent”, it is still waiting, suspended on the results of the legislative elections.
