In Germany, the Federal Ministry of Digital and Transport (BMDV) surveyed all heavy goods vehicle manufacturers and commissioned a study on the rise of alternative propulsion technologies. This report has just been published and confirms that the share of diesel should fall below 50% in 2030.
This study should help the German government plan investments in charging infrastructure and alternative fuels. However, it is only based on declarations of intent from manufacturers for the German market and not on the purchase forecasts of fleet managers. However, it contains several interesting indications because Germany has already added a CO2 component to its toll rates (LKW-Maut), which tends to equalize the TCO between thermal engine trucks and electric trucks. Last clarification: the study only takes into account vehicles weighing more than 12 tonnes.
- In 2024, heavy goods vehicles with alternative propulsion will represent 3.1% of sales. The market share of electric trucks reaches almost 2%.
- Battery-electric truck market share expected to overtake diesel trucks in 2030
- Diesel propulsion will only take up 14% of the market in 2033.
- The market share of fuel cell trucks, currently residual (0.1%), will remain so until 2028. From 2029, it will increase more significantly to reach 14% in 2030 and 17.6% in 2033. To this must be added the market share of trucks with H2ICE engines (combustion engine) which should reach 6% in 2030 but decrease slightly thereafter.
- Other alternative propulsion systems (plug-in hybrids and bio-CNG/LNG) will not exceed 5% market share over the entire period considered.
Belgium
