“ Does the whole country have to burn for us to fight the fire? » To this question from the reggae group Sinsemilia on the rise of the RN, the French left quickly responded with a new coalition, “the Popular Front”. Can we think that this front will be more solid than NUPES, which broke out at the end of 2023 over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? QG interviewed the political scientist Rémi Lefebvre, lecturer at the University of Lille, notably author of “’Should we despair of the left? » in 2022. Interview by Jonathan Baudoin
QG: Monday June 10, the main left-wing parties agreed on the principle of a coalition, entitled “Popular Front”. What is your view on this alliance of left-wing parties?
Rémi Lefebvre: First of all it is of the order of electoral necessity… as in 2022. To have deputies, therefore parliamentary groups and good public financing of the parties, the left is too fragmented to claim it without that. Then, this electoral necessity is reinforced by the idea of beating the RN, which is not excluded. The left reconnects with an imagination of the Popular Front [alliance politique de la SFIO, du Parti communiste et des radicaux, gagnant les élections législatives de mai 1936, NDLR] : unity in the face of the threat of the extreme right. The problem is that the differences within the left have tended to accentuate since 2022 and that the attitude of LFI is increasingly poorly accepted in a moderate left electorate, as well as the good score of Glucksmann. showed this June 9 at the Europeans. Emmanuel Macron dissolved the assembly in the hope that the left would not overcome its disorganization and therefore that the presidential majority would be the only bulwark against the far right.
The tactical divisions and ideological differences on the left are real. The Israeli-Palestinian crisis has exacerbated them. There is a very strong opposition between, on the one hand, the fundamentally confrontational, tribunitian and rough rebellious strategy and an option more respectful of pluralism, institutions and more reformist from ecologists and socialists. But these disagreements should not be overestimated. They are often more form than substance. The new geopolitical issues have certainly exacerbated the disagreement between the partners of the late NUPES. There are oppositions on “identity” questions but they divide activist circles more than left-wing citizens. But on the social and economic and even European question, there is strong convergence. The majority of socialist leaders broke with Dutchism and its social liberalism. The greening of the left is also an achievement. There is nevertheless the poison of the presidential election which is a relentless machine for fracturing the left.
QG: However, on June 11, the Parisian federations of the PS and Place publique published a press release suggesting their intention not to align with the national agreement. Can we say that the unity of the left, announced the day before, is already shattered? Will the left-wing electorate sanction this type of position?
There will be dissidence… Place Publique is a small party which does not carry much weight beyond its media leader. But it is certain that the alliance on the left will cause a lot of discontent locally, especially in the PS. We can therefore imagine that there will be many dissidences. Voters on the left will have to decide, but there is a very strong unified aspiration on the left and the threat from the RN will further amplify it in the days to come.
QG: Which programmatic axis would be most likely to convince abstainers, particularly the working class, to vote for this new popular front, in your opinion? Is it not likely to generate tensions within the coalition, particularly between the FI and the PS?
The parties will agree on a minimum programmatic basis, say that they will resolve the differences afterwards (on the international, Ukraine, Gaza, etc.), given that there are three years before the presidential election, it is that is to say a fairly short time. It is not excluded that the left will win the next legislative elections. Macron’s maneuver could backfire. There won’t really be a campaign (the trend is growing…). Abstention is therefore likely to be high: which will have a powerful effect. There will be few triangulars (12.5% of those registered are needed to maintain). If the left is united in the first round (and if left-wing voters accept this gathering, that means for the most moderate people agreeing to vote for the “rebellious radicals” and for rebellious voters to vote for “the social traitors”), In many circles she is guaranteed to be in the second round. How will Macronist voters vote? I agree, it is these RN-Popular Front duels in the second round which can tip the country towards the extreme right if Macronist voters refuse “the forces outside the republican field” according to them. One of the lessons of the 2022 legislative elections is the weakening of the famous “republican front” in all configurations.
Social issues remain among the highest concerns of the French: purchasing power, public services, redistribution. This attachment to equality can be a point of support for the left even if the far right diverts it towards an imaginary of closed, identity-based, xenophobic protection.
HQ: Éric Ciotti, president of the LR party, announced this Tuesday, June 11, that he would form an alliance with the National Rally for these anticipated legislative elections, triggering a major crisis within his party. Is this the realization of the union of the rights, desired by the far right in recent years? And is this also the end of the domination of the Gaullist movement within the French right?
It is a clarification and another manifestation of the decomposition/recomposition of political life. LR will explode… between the elected officials who will join the RN and those who will switch to the presidential majority. The union of the rights makes the conquest of power by the extreme right very credible and probable.
Comments collected by Jonathan Baudoin
Rémi Lefebvre is the author of: Should we despair of the left? (Textual, 2022); The socialist primaries: the end of the militant party (Raisons d’agir, 2011), or even “The Public Debate: an experience of participatory democracy” (La Découverte, 2007)
