The country exported about 87.3 million cubic meters per day (Mm3/d) of gas via the two pipelines to Europe still in operation last month, a monthly increase of 1%, according to Montel estimates based on data published by the group of European gas network managers, Entso-G.
Flows to southeast Europe via the Turkstream pipeline rose 0.4% to 45.1 Mm3/d, while exports via Ukraine rose 1.7% to 42. 2 Mm3/d.
“These movements are extremely small and probably do not reflect an overall trend,” said James Waddell, head of gas at analysis firm Energy Aspects, pointing to “small changes in buyer appointments or maintenance schedules.” “.
Drop in LNG
Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe, excluding Turkey, fell by 2% compared to September to reach 51 Mm3/d, according to provisional data of ship tracking from the consulting firm Kpler.
France recorded the largest volume of imports, receiving 44% of European volumes, or 22.3 Mm3/day, followed by Belgium and Spain, each having imported around 13 Mm3/day.
But Europe could receive more LNG cargoes in the coming months, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) – which stretches from the Barents Sea, near Russia's border with Norway, to the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska – being frozen in winter.
“The route closed in the second half of October, so larger quantities of Russian LNG should be heading to Europe in the coming months compared to the summer,” Waddell said.
According to an analyst at Rystad Energy, Christoph Halser, only seven Russian LNG ships were shipped via the NSR in October, compared to 13 in September, “when [les cargaisons] usually reach a peak.
Focus on Europe
Europe was favored for exports in October, with the region's purchasing prices for U.S. LNG about a dollar higher than in East Asia, Halser says. Rystad Energy estimates show a 16% increase in US LNG arrivals to Europe last month and a 13% rise in supplies from Qatar.
LNG exports from all origins to Europe last month stood at 298 Mm3/d, according to Kpler data, including 17% from Russia and 44% from the United States.
Yuriy Onyshkiv, a Kyiv, Ukraine-based gas market analyst at LSEG, said it was “interesting” that Russian supplies were not keeping pace with deliveries from competing exporters.
“Is it because they cannot deliver – due to limited capacity, a focus on Asia or the shutdown of operations at the Arctic LNG facility due to sanctions – or are they not not welcome in the EU? » he said.
Some EU countries continue to buy Russian gas but plan to stop imports by 2027, while sanctions are already in place against imports of Russian oil and coal, in response to Moscow's war against Ukraine.
The EU got around 40% of its gas consumption from Russia before Ukraine's invasion in 2022, but that share is now less than 10%.
