The centrist majority made up of the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Renew liberals and the European Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are still expected to prevail in the new European Parliament. However, the expected rise of the far right could well tip the balance of power in favor of the EPP, according to the latest projections from Europe Elect for Euractiv ahead of the European elections which will take place from June 6 to 9.
The center-right EPP is expected to remain the largest party in the European hemicycle with 182 seats under the next legislature (2024-2029). It should be followed by the S&D group with 136 seats. With the liberal Renew Europe group and its 81 seats, the centrist majority in Parliament, which has prevailed over the past five years, would have 399 seats out of 720.
Despite disagreements on how to deal with the far right – the EPP having notably opened the door to collaboration with the party Fratelli d’Italia by Giorgia Meloni — all three groups have made it clear that they want to stick to their three-way coalition.
In practice, this means that the three political groups will retain control of Parliament’s policy-making process and will be in the driver’s seat for key internal decisions, such as those regarding the budget.
Liberals fall back and compete for third place with the far right
While the EPP and S&D group retain roughly the same number of seats as currently, Renew is expected to lose 20 seats, from 102 to 81, its worst result since the group’s creation in 2019.
The liberals will therefore find themselves neck and neck with the European Conservatives and Reformists (CRE) as well as with the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, also far-right, in the race for third place.
This loss of momentum is partly explained by the fall of the Spanish liberal party Ciudadanos — once the group’s largest national delegation with eight seats — which saw its MEPs and leaders join the Partido Popular (PPE) Spanish center-right.
At the same time, liberals are suffering heavy losses in France, where President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition is on track to fall from 23 to 15 seats.
The Greens consolidate their 6th place
The Greens are expected to obtain 55 seats, 17 fewer than in the last legislature. Although they played a major role in the adoption of files relating to the European Green Deal (Green Deal), their decline risks reducing their relevance and influence within the hemicycle.
The biggest losses should be recorded in Germany, due to the participation of environmentalists in what is proving to be a very unpopular government coalition with the socialists of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and in France, where a battered economy has notably relegated the ecological policies at the bottom of the priority list.
While the Greens have welcomed new members from Eastern and Southern Europe over the past five years, this will only partially make up for the losses, with only five seats coming from Spain, Latvia, Croatia and Slovenia.
“Some polls suggest we may not reach the same levels as 2019, but polls also did not predict our record success in 2019”recalled Terry Reintke, co-president of the Greens and head of the list, to Euractiv, nostalgic for the “green wave” of the last elections which made the group the fourth force in Parliament.
Blocking majority on the right
The expected decline of liberals and environmentalists, combined with the rise of far-right parties, will weaken the traditional centrist majority and tilt the balance of power to the right.
The CRE group, led by the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Fratelli d’Italiashould increase from 68 to 79 seats.
The far-right ID group, for its part, is expected to gain 10 seats compared to 2019 and rise to 69, although it recently excluded its largest member party (which is expected to get 15 seats), the Alternative for Germany (AfD), following a series of scandals.
Strengthening the ID and CRE groups will likely allow the EPP to pressure the socialists and liberals to make concessions when drafting legislation.
These two groups will give the EPP a chance to block certain texts if they ally themselves against the socialists and liberals, as they tried to do in the outgoing Parliament with the nature restoration law. This time, however, the right-wing bloc will have enough seats to achieve a majority.
Reshuffling of the right wing in perspective
With Giorgia Meloni, her Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán, Marine Le Pen and Polish opposition leader Mateusz Morawiecki all calling for some sort of right-wing unification to counterbalance pro-European forces, speculation is rife over a imminent reshuffle of the far right in Parliament.
While some would like to see a union of the right to form a group bringing together CRE and ID, making the far right the second political force in the hemicycle with around 160 seats, such an option is unlikely due to significant disagreements in varied policy areas and long-standing internal disputes between national parties.
However, a review of previous and current group agreements within the EPP and the Greens shows how this could work in practice.
The left remains stable, but faultlines are emerging
The Left group (GUE/NGL) is on course to obtain 38 seats, roughly the same number as today, but with limited room for maneuver for broader coalitions. The future of the group is therefore uncertain.
A new left-wing populist and conservative party created in Germany, the Sahra Wagenknecht-For Reason and Justice (BSW) Alliance, recently confirmed that it had found enough support to create a new group on the left of the chamber . Some members of the GUE/NGL group may jump ship to join the new BSW group.
[Édité par Anne-Sophie Gayet]
