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– In Tourcoing, where buyers have one of the best purchasing power, a property remains on sale for 105 days on average, compared to 77 a year ago.
The good weather seems to make the real estate market look better. After having been stable in March and April, the price per square meter appreciated by 0.2% on June 1 nationally over the last three months, according to the latest study by the real estate portal SeLoger*. An increase driven in particular by the rural sector which experienced a particularly dynamic mid-spring (+0.9%). Simple seasonal evolution or real reversal? “It is still too early to talk about a trend reversalprocrastinates Imane Selmane, data economist at SeLoger. Spring is always a period of renewed activity, we wait until next month to see if the lull continues.»
Despite everything, this cover stands out. This is the first time since January 2023, when an increase of 0.1% was observed, that prices have risen again. As a reminder, the rise in interest rates since the start of 2022 and the loss of real estate purchasing power of households have caused the number of transactions to fall, leading the market into a downward cycle across the entire country. The decline in interest rates, which has been underway for six months now, is in turn promoting the solvency of households who are seeing their purchasing power very gradually increase. In cities like Saint-Etienne, Roubaix, Tourcoing, Clermont-Ferrand or Avignon, buyers of an apartment gain up to 6 square meters for the same monthly payment (1,000 euros over 20 years) in June 2024 compared to January 2024.
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Prices rise again where the declines were greatest
The cities where prices are starting to rise are those where the declines have been the steepest. In Bordeaux, where prices fell by 5.9% in one year on average, they increased by 1.2% in May over the last three months. Ditto in Tours, where prices collapsed by 7.2% in one year, and are now up 3.1% compared to February. However, this situation is not enough to convince candidates to purchase. In a town like Tourcoing, where buyers have one of the best purchasing power, a property remains on sale for 105 days on average, compared to 77 a year ago. “Interest rates are still very high, and prices have not yet fallen enough to regain purchasing power equivalent to before January 2022», explains Imane Selmane.
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Especially since the erosion of rates should not stop there, since the European Central Bank (ECB) should reduce its key rates at the end of its meeting scheduled for Thursday June 6 – a first since 2016 –, pulling interest on real estate loans is still falling. All the more reason for buyers to wait and see.
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The only exception: Paris, where the fall in prices began well before the rate cut. In January 2022, the average square meter there reached 10,203 euros. Today, it peaks at 9,190 euros, and “should soon fall below the 9,000 euros per square meter mark», Anticipates SeLoger. However, the downward spiral into which the capital was engulfed slowed down in May, for the first time in two years.
*Average interest rate over a period of 20 years: 3.90% on June 1, 2024 and 4.20% on January 1, 2024 (Borrowing)
