Towards 4 years of dictatorship from November?

The election of Donald Trump in November could well plunge America into bloody internal chaos. He is preparing to wage total war on American institutions: from the army to the justice system! Are we heading towards an American dictatorship?

Trump condemned

A few days ago, Donald Trump was convicted of 34 crimes in New York. All charges relate to falsifying business records. Basically, Donald Trump slept with a porn star, had his lawyer pay the porn star to keep quiet, and then presented the payments as legal fees so as not to publicize the matter. After the sentence is handed down, Mr. Trump will begin a lengthy appeal process.

This may seem like a minor offense, but New York State takes it seriously, it is actually a misdemeanor for which it is quite common to be prosecuted. There is also no doubt that Trump committed this crime.

unloved Trump

On the other hand, Trump supporters are probably right that the vigor and zeal with which prosecutors pursued the case was likely due, at least in part, to to the fact that Trump is a prominent politician that they don’t like.

Prosecutors have wide discretion in choosing which cases to pursue, and it’s hard to believe that Trump’s notoriety hasn’t made him a bigger target. This is a common phenomenon in democratic countries.

In 2016, Trump and his supporters pushed for Hillary Clinton to be prosecuted for using a public email server for private purposes and/or for allegedly misusing her charitable foundation for private purposes.

Trump supporters chanting “Lock her up!” » clearly wanted exactly the type of politically motivated prosecution they are now accusing Trump’s opponents of organizing.

Trump, soon to be imprisoned?

In addition to Trump’s condemnation and appeal, this is just one of four cases he is charged with, in four different courts:

• He is being prosecuted in Florida for mismanaging government files
• He is being prosecuted in Washington for conspiring to obstruct the transfer of power after the 2020 election.
• He is being prosecuted in Georgia for racketeering with the aim of overturning the results of the 2020 elections in that state.

The last two charges are very serious, much more serious, than the manipulation of government records or the secret payments for which Trump has just been convicted.

Rumor has it that the evidence against Trump is stronger in these other three cases than in the one for which he was just convicted. It is therefore to be expected that there will be many more such cases.

The fall of Nixon

As a reminder, The Watergate scandal ultimately forced Richard Nixon to resign. It was an event that was followed religiously by fans glued to their television sets day after day, but that most Americans simply ignored.

The United States has just experienced a decade of social and political unrest. They had the “woke” movement, the alt-right, BLM, MeToo.

They had Trump 2016, Bernie vs. Hillary, Charlottesville, the case KavanaughTHE CovidGeorge Floyd, riotsTHE January 6.

So America is tired.

By 1973, Americans were also very tired. They had just experienced nine years of riots, anti-war protests, assassinations, sexual revolution, rising crime, etc..

And yet, without Nixon’s resignation, it is not certain that the Reagan revolution would have taken place. By 1980, Watergate was all but forgotten—a minor problem the nation had agreed to leave behind.

The most controversial president of the mid-20th century, who sparked so much protest from both sides, had been relegated to a footnote. Forgetting the bitter division that had surrounded Nixon allowed Ronald Reagan for being a largely unifying force in American society, an agent of recovery from burnout.

This is how conservatives have dominated American politics for decades.

Towards a conservative revolution

It is not yet clear whether Trump’s indictments and convictions will have a major effect on the 2024 election.

It is also possible that Trump’s convictions – particularly if he is convicted of some of the most serious crimes for which he is being prosecuted – will bring a large number of his supporters to disengage from politics and give the election to Biden.

Polls show that Trump supporters already tend to be more disinterested in politics than Biden supporters, on average. The convictions could reinforce this perception.

But ironically, if the lawsuits succeed in removing Trump from the public eye in the same way that Watergate removed Nixon, it will go a long way toward usher in a new conservative revolution in America.

There are many reasons why Americans are ready for an era of more conservative governance and social attitudes.

Towards 4 years of chaos?

All policies combined, it is very clear that Trump devotes most of his energy to fighting American institutions that he sees as rivals for power.

First, there would be ongoing lawsuits. Sitting presidents enjoy legal immunity for acts they performed as president, but it is unclear whether they have immunity for acts they performed outside the presidency.

This would certainly be the subject of bitter, public and protracted legal battles.

As president, Trump will almost certainly try to pardon himself of all crimes – something he has already openly discussed on several occasions.

If the Supreme Court authorized such a pardon, it would mean that the president is effectively above the law; he can murder someone in the street and pardon himself for it.

It would likely torpedo confidence in the Supreme Court and raise serious questions about whether the president is simply an elected dictator.

Will the United States become a dictatorship?

But a self-pardon wouldn’t even solve all of Trump’s legal problems. Presidents cannot grant pardons only for federal crimes, and many of Trump’s indictments are for state crimes.

To get out of this, it would probably be necessary another Supreme Court ruling that the president is immune from state-level prosecution.

But if the Supreme Court allowed Trump’s convictions to stand, the latter would almost certainly provoke a constitutional crisis in response, either by defying the Court or by attempting to use presidential power to weaken it.

And more generally, Trump would respond to legal proceedings with a massive public pressure campaign against the American legal systemsimilar to his “Stop the Steal” campaign against the electoral system.

Trump, the American pariah?

The fact that one of the two men likely to be president next year is now a convicted criminal suggests the possibility that these same judicial institutions which guarantee the rule of law fare the subject of the most ferocious political attack in American history.

We can expect that Trump uses the Republican Party for the rest of the campaign to destroy the justice system.

All of this, in turn, will trigger outrage among everyone on the left of the political spectrum. The internal battles over Palestine will be forgotten, because half the nation will unify and reorient itself toward fighting a dictatorial presidency.

There will be marches in the streetsperhaps riots. There will certainly be a widespread attempt to use all remaining institutional power to drive Trump from his perch.

It would be as if Nixon had refused to resign, been impeached and convicted, and refused to leave office, while retaining a slim majority of popular support. History rhymes, but there is no guarantee that it will repeat itself.

Will Trump weaken the United States?

Remember that while all this is happening, China and Russia are watching everything that happens here and waiting with bated breath.

If the United States descends into internal chaos for four years, Asia will likely be subjugated to the Chinese Communist Party, while Europe will be left to fend for itself against a Chinese-backed Russian empire. When the United States emerges ultimately from this chaos, they will find themselves facing a planet largely dominated by their enemies, which will have serious consequences for the rest of this century.

Satosh

Every day, I try to enrich my knowledge about this revolution which will allow humanity to advance in its conquest of freedom.