There is a 98% chance that the next 4 years will be a furnace for humanity. A culprit: El Niño

JVTech News There is a 98% chance that the next 4 years will be a furnace for humanity. A culprit: El Niño

El Niño: a violent climatic phenomenon begins

The title of this paper might seem a little alarmist, but it is based on scientific facts: yes, there is a 98% chance that the next four years will be extremely hot. Likewise, it is almost certain that the next 4 years taken together are the 4 hottest years in modern history (on average), by far. So yes, we are seeing a global and progressive increase in temperatures due to global warming. The singularity of the moment, what changes and accelerates everything for the next 4 years, is the El Niño phenomenon. The “little boy” has just arrived, and the planet risks feeling him pass.

So let’s start with the basics: what is El Niño? El Niño is the perfect illustration of the close link between ocean temperature and atmospheric circulation. This climatic phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (or ENSO, for its initials in English) is linked to a cycle of variation in global atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western zones of the Pacific, called the “Southern Oscillation”. . This phenomenon is cyclical (although somewhat irregular) and strongly impacts the global climate. This cycle is made up of two alternating phases: one cold, “la Niña” and the other hot, “El Niño”. As La Niña recedes and El Niño arrives, as it does now, surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise significantly due to the absence of cooling trade winds.. One thing leading to another, global temperatures are experiencing a steep rise. Thus, it is almost always during “El Niño” periods that the Earth has experienced its worst heatwave episodes. You therefore understand why the WMO is sounding the alarm.

What impact on our lives?

The first consequences of El Niño are already appearing in the North Atlantic. Let’s take a concrete example: The southwestern United States is currently facing the most severe drought in 1,200 years. Dams produce up to times less energy because of the water level, farmers’ harvests are compromised… this drought has a concrete impact on the lives of people like you and me. Science predicted all this, but governments have generally failed to act accordingly.

When is it from France? Because yes, the impact of El Niño varies from region to region. According to AEMET, the Spanish Meteorological Agency, El Niño dries up some parts of the globe while others are flooded by torrential rains. Neither of these two situations is enviable for the populations. As far as we are concerned, it is obvious that France is located a long distance from the equatorial Pacific. Therefore, the real effects of El Niño are much less evident than in other corners of the planet. That being said, a recurring observation emerges from the analysis of previous El Niño episodes: in addition to scorching summers, France should be entitled to (very) rainy autumns. El Niño brings stronger than normal subtropical circulation to our geographic region. This creates favorable conditions (especially when the North Atlantic Oscillation is negative) for Atlantic storms to reach France, especially in the southwest of the country.

Let’s conclude with new words from a scientist. Climatologist and volcanologist Bill McGuire expressed a major concern. For him, “The world is not prepared.” He puts forward as proof the fact that the heatwaves of the year 2022 were overall very poorly managed even though these heatwaves were tempered by La Niña. The most pessimistic tendencies of climatologists unfortunately tend to be confirmed and, for McGuire, 2022 was only a warning: the worst is ahead of us. The little boy could well cause serious humanitarian disasters.