Is the war against Hezbollah tipping towards all-out war?

INTERNATIONAL – Is the Middle East about to burn? In a few hours, the situation dramatically worsened on Tuesday October 1, when Iran launched missiles at Israel in the evening. A response to the land incursions of the Jewish state in Lebanon. Even the projectiles, which caused only two slight injuries, were intercepted, Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Tehran would pay for it “ the price.”

Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, the international community has been warning of the risk of a “ regional conflagration » and continued to call for de-escalation. But in recent weeks tensions have dangerously increased between Israel and the country of Cedar: explosion of pagers, then walkie-talkies attributed to Israel, elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, in an Israeli bombardment, ground incursions on the Lebanese territory…

To the point of making Iran react. The latter, who declared two days ago that he did not wish to send a fighter to Gaza and Lebanon to fight his sworn enemy, finally chose to attack Israel directly by sending around 180 missiles, twice as many as last spring when of the first response. A scenario that the international community sought to avoid at all costs so as not to fall into “ the conflagration ».

The worst case scenario

For ex-Colonel Michel Goya, historian and author of The Catching Fire – Understanding the stakes of the Israel-Hamas war (published by Robert Laffont), a “ total war » in the Middle East corresponds to an open conflict between Israel and Iran, two sovereign states… and their allies. “ This is the heart of the problem, he explains to HuffPost. This conflict would involve other states involved in the region.”

Among them, the United States, Israel’s main supporter. For its part, Iran is supported by several non-state organizations which are present in several countries, in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and therefore in Lebanon with Hezbollah. “ And these organizations are themselves already in friction with American bases based in Iraq and Syria, for example. », Specifies the expert.

In this catastrophic scenario, these actors could all get involved in the conflict at the same time. And the existence of the nuclear arsenal in Iran does not help to calm people’s minds.

The continuation of the conflict in the hands of Israel

Did Iran then tip the conflict by adopting this aggressive position? “ It is difficult to understand the Iranian strategy in this affair », admits Michel Goya. For him, if this action shows the solidarity of the regime with the axis of the Resistance, it remains “ militarily ineffective » and that « gives Israel a huge pretext to attack on a large scale ».

« We cannot consider at the moment that we are in a total war because for the moment we remain in one-off and controlled actions. It’s paradoxical, but it’s a controlled escalation”emphasizes to the HuffPost Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the Institute of Strategy and Defense Studies at the University of Lyon 3.

According to the two experts, everything will be decided in the coming days with Israel’s response. “ If Tel Aviv responds strongly, but does not launch a strike campaign, and if the Iranians stop there, we will remain on the same limited pattern of last April », he explains to us. Indeed, on April 13, Iran launched more than 200 drones and missiles against Israel, in response to a raid against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, attributed to the Jewish state. He refrained from retaliating.

But in the event that he chose to retaliate this time, the worst would be feared. “ We would cross the threshold of a new open war, with air raids, cyberattacks on one side, and missile strikes, and perhaps terrorist attacks on the other. », imagines the former colonel. It remains to be seen which pawns Israel will move in the hours or days to come.

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