THE EDITORIAL BY RAPHAËL LEGENDRE. Emmanuel Macron indicated during his wishes that he would ask the French to “decide” on certain “determining issues” in 2025. What are the options?
The word has not been spoken, but it is indeed the idea of a referendum that Emmanuel Macron launched in his wishes to the French for the year 2025. “Or citizen consultations”, adds his entourage, signs that the subject is not completely settled at the Élysée.
The initiative remains no less surprising, because the last time Emmanuel Macron gave the French a voice again was not long ago, it was at the time of the dissolution. It didn't really work out for him…
Emmanuel Macron also recognized it on Tuesday evening for the first time, “the dissolution brought more divisions to the Assembly than solutions for the French”. “This decision has produced more instability than serenity (…), I take all my part in it,” he even conceded for the first time.
Raphaël Legendre's Editorial: In 2025, a referendum for what to do? – 02/01
A failure therefore, which does not, however, prevent him from doing it again. But for what?
Four “decisive” themes were identified by the President. “We will have choices to make for our economy, our democracy, our security, our children,” he said. The Head of State sees far: these choices must prepare the France of 2050.
In reality, it is quite constrained by article 11 of the Constitution which frames referendums around three subjects: the organization of public authorities, reforms relating to the economic, social or environmental policy of the nation and the ratification of an international treaty.
When it comes to economic policies, we immediately think of pensions. The left is demanding it. But it is hard to see the Élysée embarking on such an adventure.
The right and the far right are, for their part, demanding a vote on immigration. But social issues are not part of the scope of Article 11.
There remains the proportional approach that François Bayrou defends. Not sure, however, that the subject will mobilize the crowds.
“Overcoming parliamentary blockages”
So, what is the interest for Emmanuel Macron? At the Élysée, we are talking about “sewing the link between elected officials and the French”. The referendum would be “a way to overcome parliamentary blockages”. The idea is above all to get back to the center of the game and to gain a little time before the next dissolution.
The risk is obviously that the referendum turns into a plebiscite for or against Macron. The oppositions will not miss the opportunity. To avoid this trap, one of the avenues studied would be to submit five or six questions to the vote of the French.
But we know that whatever the question, they generally answer “no”. This is why no one has taken out the referendum weapon since the failure of the consultation on Europe in 2005. The exercise is therefore not without danger without the President. The opportunity to see if Emmanuel Macron still likes to “take his risk”.
