There are many hypotheses as to the origin of the ring, with some experts even doubting that it was an object that fell from space.
A metal ring approximately 2.5 meters in diameter and 500 kg fell on December 30 in the village of Mukuku, in southern Kenya. The Kenyan Space Agency (KSA) has opened an investigation and initially mentioned a separation ring from a rocket. But other hypotheses about the object’s provenance quickly emerged. Asked about one of them, a KSA official clarified on Friday that the agency could not at this stage “dismiss the responsibility of anyone”.
There are many hypotheses, with some experts interviewed by AFP even doubting that it was an object that fell from space. For Romain Lucken, the boss of Aldoria, a French start-up specializing in satellite monitoring, the hypothesis of debris “is absolutely plausible”. According to him, it would be part of the upper stage of the PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) developed by the Indian Space Agency.
“There is a mission which was sent on December 30 with a re-entry date which corresponds well and, above all, a re-entry point which corresponds very well, within a few tens of kilometers”, he explains to the AFP. Aldoria, which has 15 telescopes around the world, searches for launch information and then reconstructs the trajectory by knowing “the typical trajectories at each of the major launch sites.”
“I’m not even totally convinced that the ring is space debris,” argues Jonathan McDowell, an American astronomy expert who helped identify a piece of the International Space Station that fell on a house in Florida in April 2024. He studied several hypotheses, including that of the atmospheric reentry of a part of the Ariane V184 rocket, in 2008, while noting that the mass did not correspond. “This part does not belong to an element of a European launcher operated by Arianespace,” responded the French group when questioned by AFP on this hypothesis.
John Crassidis, professor at New York University SUNY and who works with NASA on space debris, judges for his part that the technical assessments of the Kenyan agency “are 100% accurate” and that it will succeed “ to determine which country it comes from, because each country does things a little differently. “It could be a ring, not of the rocket itself, but of the upper stage, which tends to be smaller,” he told AFP.
According to Christophe Bonnal, French specialist in space pollution, the object could come from a military launcher. “They are armored, that would corroborate the fact that it is very massive and heavy,” he said. But it could also come from an excavator or a tank, he added.
What are the dangers of falling debris?
These episodes have not yet caused any deaths, but they are becoming more and more frequent with the multiplication of launches. “Ten years ago, an object capable of creating impact fragments re-entered the atmosphere approximately every two weeks, this can now happen twice a week,” emphasizes Stijn Lemmens, debris specialist at the Agency. European Space Agency (ESA). “This will end up falling on critical infrastructure, like a nuclear power plant or an oil tanker, on homes,” warns Romain Lucken.
“It’s our sword of Damocles,” says Christophe Bonnal. But geography helps, he adds, since the Earth is 71% covered by oceans and 10% by deserts and that there is “only 3.3% of the surface of the globe which is densely populated “.
A million pieces of space debris
There are some 30,000 cataloged pieces of space debris larger than ten centimeters and more than a million larger than one centimeter and they are all potentially “dangerous”, according to Romain Lucken. “The catalog does not include different military objects. If it is a piece of an American missile, we may never know,” Christophe Bonnal also notes.
John Crassidis mentions Russia and China which, according to him, do not respect “any rules” in this area. In Europe, regulations require operators to put in place measures to “make controlled entries into uninhabited areas in the South Pacific or ensure that the objects will be completely destroyed,” underlines Romain Lucken. “But that’s the theory. Once the mission is launched, anything can happen. And no one is going to be ordered to pay compensation if there is an accident,” he concludes.
(afp/er)
