Climate change exacerbated Hurricane Milton’s rains and winds, network of experts says

Rainfall from Hurricane Milton, which caused at least 16 deaths in the United States, was about 20% to 30% higher due to climate change, and its winds 10% more intense, according to rapid analysis of Hurricane Milton. a reference scientific network published this Friday, October 11.

This work from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network concludes that without climate change, the hurricane would have made landfall in Florida in category 2 instead of 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which measures the intensity of the winds and in counts 5 in total.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the risk of damage increases fourfold for each category increase.

“Very high sea surface temperatures”

The WWA group’s analysis also indicates that precipitation similar to that of Hurricane Milton is now about twice as likely with global warming, which is already 1.3°C above average. pre-industrial era.

This rapid analysis, published just two days after Milton made landfall in Florida, is less thorough than the studies often carried out by this group of international researchers.

Also read

But they had published detailed work on Wednesday on Hurricane Helene, which hit Florida only about two weeks before Milton, therefore with many similar factors.

The results for Milton are also consistent with other results for hurricanes in the same area, according to WWA.

“We are therefore confident that these changes in (Milton’s) heavy precipitation are attributable to human-caused climate change.”writes the group in its analysis. Milton’s rapid intensification was favored “by the very high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico”he adds.