In 2025, tax revenues should approach 20% of GDP, a level which, according to the Ministry of Finance, should be maintained at least until 2027. This performance is based on a reduction in tax loopholes and a broadening of the tax base. taxpayers.
Growth, this old economic dogma, cannot be disconnected from physical and environmental realities. However, it remains the alpha and omega of public policies. Analysts from Attijari Global Research (AGR), however, emphasize that, in the local context, this quest for growth remains subject to economic and environmental imperatives.
In their latest note of appreciation of the Finance Law 2025 (LF2025), the AGR research department questions the forecast of a growth rate of 4.6% put forward by the Finance Law 2025, based on an increase of 11 % of agricultural added value, and estimates that it remains dependent on still uncertain rainfall.
AGR also expresses reservations regarding the hypothesis of a cereal harvest of 70 million quintals for 2025, a figure considered ambitious compared to the 31 million achieved the previous year. Although the filling rate of dams has increased slightly to 29%, the persistent heatwave and the delay in precipitation make such a recovery in agricultural production unlikely.
On the other hand, the subsidiary of the Attijariwafa bank group is confident about the solidity of the other assumptions of the Finance Law. The growth projection of 3.7% for non-agricultural value added is considered realistic, in line with the performance of the last three years.
This forecast is based in particular on increasing foreign demand (+3.2%), driven by a moderate recovery in Europe (+1.1%) and the easing of geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the decline in oil prices, currently below 70 dollars per barrel, should make it possible to reduce the burden of the energy bill, reinforced by an expected drop in butane prices.
In its latest delivery, AGR also expects a recovery of the euro against the dollar, thanks to a more accommodating American monetary policy, which would stabilize the EUR-USD parity around 1.12.
Soaring FDI
But beyond climatic hazards, growth prospects remain supported by major events such as CAN 2025 and the 2030 World Cup. These deadlines, combined with structuring projects in key sectors such as energy, education and health, reflect a strong desire to place the country on a sustainable development trajectory.
In this context, domestic demand plays a central role. Household consumption benefits from a notable drop in inflation (+0.8% over the first eleven months of 2024) and record transfers from Moroccans living abroad, reaching 100 billion dirhams at the end of October (+ 3.9%). Consumer credits, although modest (+1.5%), also reinforce this dynamic. This momentum is reinforced by a clear recovery in investments. Foreign direct investment flows recorded an increase of 23.7%, while equipment loans increased by 14.2%, accompanied by an 11.6% increase in imports of capital goods.
This dynamism is also reflected in robust external demand, driven by sectors such as automobiles (+8%), phosphates (+12.5%) and aeronautics (+17.3%), while energy bill decreases by 5.5% thanks to the drop in oil prices.
However, Morocco’s economic development is not limited to its industrialization. The tertiary sector remains the main contributor to growth, with an expected increase of 4.1%, surpassing that of the secondary sector (+2.9%).
This trend is based, in part, on increasing foreign demand (+3.2%), in an environment marked by a moderate recovery in Europe. This encouraging picture is also based on rigorous management of public finances. The public debt ratio is expected to fall to 69% of GDP in 2025, reaching its lowest level since 2019. This budgetary control strengthens the country’s room for maneuver to support its development ambitions.
Financial resilience
In 2025, tax revenues should represent nearly 20% of GDP, a historically high level which, according to the Ministry of Finance, should be maintained at least until 2027. This performance is based on a reduction in tax loopholes and a widening of the taxpayer base, thus consolidating recurring revenues for the Treasury.
At the same time, non-tax revenue reached 4.4% of GDP, driven by the rise of public establishments and new financing mechanisms. At the end of December 2023, the public portfolio included 273 public establishments and companies, including 45 public limited companies, covering various strategic sectors, testifying to Morocco’s continued effort to strengthen the resilience of its economy. Analysts at Attijari Global Research emphasize that the tax reform undertaken in recent years is starting to bear fruit.
Between 2020 and 2023, ordinary revenue recorded a remarkable increase of nearly 100 billion dirhams, supported by the rearrangement of VAT and corporate tax rates, the broadening of the taxpayer base, as well as the reduction of tax exemptions. A performance driven by unprecedented non-tax revenues, representing 4.4% of GDP in 2025, and almost 80% of which comes from public establishments and new financing mechanisms, marks a successful diversification of State resources.
The viability of the retirement system at stake
Overall, Morocco’s capacity to absorb a possible economic shock is significantly strengthened, thanks to the historic increase in tax revenues as well as the broadening of the taxpayer base and significant non-tax revenues, estimate analysts from ‘Attijari Global Research.
“Morocco would have all the latitude to continue its social reforms and to tackle the costly project of the viability of the retirement system…”. An urgency accentuated by the latest census figures, which show a demographic deceleration which implicitly reflects a “premature” aging of the population.
Ayoub Ibnoulfassih / ECO Inspirations
