Three days before the election, the National Rally list led by Jordan Bardella consolidates its first place with 32% of voting intentions (+1 point since the last poll on May 15) in the European elections, according to an Ipsos survey for France Bleu published this Thursday. The RN further widens the gap with the Renaissance list led by Valerie Hayerwhich loses 0.5 points compared to the last surveyto settle at 15.5% of voting intentions.
Raphaël Glucksmann still third
The presidential camp candidate remains closely followed by the head of the PS-Place publique list Raphaël Glucksmann, which stands at 13.5% of voting intentions, one point less than in May. The momentum of the socialist candidate, strong in March and April, waned over the weeks.
The survey currently places the LFI list led Manon Aubry at 9% (+1 point compared to the last survey), far behind the socialists, but progressing. For La France insoumise, which focused its electoral campaign on the war between Israel and Hamas, the strategy seems to have little payoff. Only 8% of French people say that the Gaza issue will be a determining factor in their vote, far behind purchasing power (50%), immigration (35%), the health system (29%) and environmental protection (24%).
No Bellamy effect
The Republican candidate François-Xavier Bellamy remains stuck at 7%. His end-of-campaign media stunts to deplore the surprise intervention of Gabriel Attal alongside Valérie Hayer this Monday in the Radio France auditorium or his strong criticism, on May 23, of the debate organized between the Prime Minister and the RN candidate Jordan Bardella, have no visible effects in the polls.
The list of Ecologists, led by Marie Toussaint, peaks at 6% of voting intentions (-0.5). The far-right candidate Marion Maréchal (Reconquest) flirts with the 5% mark which allows MEPs to be sent to the Strasbourg hemicycle, with 5.5% of voting intentions (-0.5). The communist Léon Deffontaines recovers 0.5 points to settle at 2.5%. THE other lists collect between 0 and 1.5% of voting intentions.
Participation falling
Participation is estimated at 48%. In the 2019 European elections, participation stood at 50.1%. Abstention forecasts have been declining since our last survey in May. The turnout estimate is three points higher than three weeks ago. According to our survey, 15% of those surveyed have not yet chosen the list they were going to vote for. Among them, 7% will choose at the last moment, either on election day or the day before.
According to our survey, nearly 70% of those questioned (71%) assure that their choice is final, compared to 63% in April and 69% three weeks ago. A certainty particularly visible among Reconquest voters where 92% are sure of their choice. Jordan Bardella voters also remain sure of their choice (85%). Among Valérie Hayer’s supporters, 84% demand a definitive choice, significantly more than in May when they were only 74%.
On the left, the electorate is more volatile. The Greens candidate Marie Toussaint is the one who has the most to lose in the face of the “useful vote” for the benefit of Raphaël Glucksmann since only 55% of environmentalist sympathizers say they are certain of their choice. We observe the same uncertainty in the LR electorate, still very hesitant about their vote: only 52% of supporters of the right-wing party say they are certain of voting for François-Xavier Bellamy.
Methodology
This survey was conducted from May 5 to 6 via the internet, among a sample of 1,738 people aged over 18, constituting a national sample representative of the French population and registered on the electoral lists. The margin of error is between 0.7 and 2.4 points.
