OTTAWA | Bolstered by an improbable electoral victory and new negotiating power in Parliament, the Bloc Québécois made a significant breakthrough in voting intentions.
“If there were an election today, the Bloc would be in a better position than ever,” underlines pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
Yves-François Blanchet’s party garners 35% of support, up 6 percentage points compared to the end of last August, according to a survey carried out by The Journal-VAT News.
Pertinence
Federal elections are scheduled for October 2025, but the vote could take place much earlier. Justin Trudeau’s minority government, which was recently ousted by the NDP, is fighting for its survival in the House of Commons and could fall at any time.
With the support of 45% of French speakers, compared to 20% for the PLC and 21% for the PCC, the Bloc can hope to make gains, having obtained 32 seats in the 2021 elections.
The sovereignist party has just made a breakthrough on the island of Montreal, winning against all odds the liberal castle of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.
Since the NDP severed its political ties with the Liberals, the Bloc Québécois has been trying to use its influence to obtain gains in exchange for the government’s survival until Christmas.
The sovereignist party wants to extract from the Liberals a 10% increase in pensions for 65 to 74 year olds and increased protection for supply management.
“In my opinion, they demonstrate their usefulness for Quebecers,” analyzes Mr. Léger.
Poilievre tramples
Conversely, Quebec still constitutes a mystery for the Conservative Party of Pierre Poilievre, which is stagnating at 22% in voting intentions.
The Conservative leader’s long summer tour in Quebec and his maneuvers to bring down the government do not seem to be bearing fruit.
Photo d’archives, Stevens LeBlanc
Worse, the upside potential of the PCC in Quebec “is not very high” for the moment, which garners the second choices of a meager 7% of the electorate, indicates Mr. Léger.
“It’s as if they don’t need Quebec,” believes the pollster. “There is work to be done in Quebec, inevitably.”
The NDP is “the party that scares the least”, representing the second choice of 20% of Quebec voters.
Priorities
Positive point for Pierre Poilievre: the fight against inflation and the cost of living are at the top of the priorities of Quebec voters (see the table opposite).
“That’s [un] advantage for Pierre Poilievre,” analyzes M. Léger.
Financing the health network and managing immigration complete the podium.
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