You probably don’t feel it when you check out at your supermarket, but know that food prices are down 2.1% globally in 2024 compared to the previous year. The main cause: the fall in world prices of cereals and sugar, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The price index calculated by the FAO, which tracks the variation in international prices of a basket of commodities, decreased by 13.3% for cereals compared to 2023 and by 13.2% for sugar over the same period. These declines were partly offset by the increase in prices of vegetable oils (+9.4%), dairy products (4.7%, notably driven by butter prices) and meats (2.7%).
A drop in demand for wheat
After the surge in the prices of cereals, and particularly wheat, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prices continued to fall to return to their pre-war prices on international markets.
In December 2024, wheat export prices remained broadly stable: “downward pressure from weak international demand and increased seasonal supplies from harvests in Argentina and Australia were offset by upward pressures from poor winter crop conditions in Russia,” explains the monthly FAO report.
Strong demand for corn in Ukraine
World corn prices increased slightly, “supported by a slight increase in export sales and a tightening of supply in the United States, as well as strong demand for Ukrainian origins”. Among other coarse grains, world prices of barley increased, while those of sorghum declined.
Rice prices fell slightly (-1.2%) in December, due to a “slowdown in demand” for fragrant rice, but increased slightly year-on-year (+0.8%), notably supported by imports from several Asian countries during the first nine months of 2024.
Fall in the price of sugar
The drop in sugar prices is mainly due to “record exports from Brazil during the year” and “positive prospects for world supply for the 2024/25 campaign”. Despite a very slight decline in December, annual oil prices remained high, driven by palm oil in a context of “global supply tightening”.
