The National Rally won three constituencies in the first round and increased its presence. The New Popular Front is doing well, but everything will depend on potential withdrawals in the second round.
RN: confirmation of the European wave
The glass ceiling has exploded into a thousand pieces, with shards on the ground that could permanently disrupt the regional political landscape. And make walking forward hazardous on this bed of shards. The National Rally is making strong progress in the region, including where it was not taking root well until then, like Lozère.
The RN won in the first round in the second constituency of Gard and came close to being elected in three others. Election in the first round also in the second of the P.-O. (the outgoing MP, Anaïs Sabatini, won with 55%) and the seventh from Hérault. Many RN candidates increase their 2022 score by several thousand votes: up to 20,000 more for some! In the six constituencies of Gard, this is around 100,000 more votes for the RN compared to 2022.
In 2015, the redrawing of the regions according to François Hollande had prevented Languedoc-Roussillon from switching to the FN. If the method was considered a political coup, it is now taking on water, with both feet in the RN wave.
It should be noted that the outgoing MP Emmanuelle Ménard, who has disassociated herself from the RN, is in difficulty facing the RN departmental delegate, Julien Gabarrron, in the sixth of Hérault.
The issue of potential withdrawals
In 2022, there was only one triangular in Occitanie (in Tarn). This Sunday, 27 potential triangulars came out of the polls, 11 for the East side and 16 for the West. This shows the challenge of this between two rounds: the call for a “systematic republican withdrawal“will he be heard?
In the 4th constituency of Hérault, the former Macronist MP Jean-François Eliaou (22.5%) has already announced that he is maintaining his position against the outgoing MP Sébastien Rome (NFP, 33%) and the RN Manon Bouquin (41.2%).
Last waltz for the Macronists?
A Macronist wave swept over the region in 2017, often former socialists from the former Midi Rouge. What will remain next Sunday of the last of the Mohicans? Will Macronie finish burning itself, all ashes extinguished?
In 2022, five LREM deputies had already paid the price in the election, in the east of Occitanie. There were only three left this time, all in Hérault: Patrick Vignal, Secretary of State Patricia Miralles (against environmentalist and former deputy Jean-Louis Roumégas) and Laurence Cristol (against former PS deputy Fanny Dombre-Coste and RN Lauriane Troise). All three came third. The question of their withdrawal is raised.
The New Popular Front marched
The regional majority, behind its socialist president Carole Delga, although hostile to the Nupes strategy of partnership with LFI, played the game of the NFP, even if it cost it. Outgoing MP Nathalie Oziol (Montpellier) won in the first round.
There was, however, a breach of this NFP agreement: in the first constituency of Aude, the parachuted candidacy of Philippe Poutou (NPA) was rejected by Carole Delga and the Aude PS. The discord almost allowed the outgoing RN deputy Christophe Barthès (49.33%) to be elected in the first round. Almost impossible mission for Philippe Poutou (18.70%).
Overview of the other headliners
Aurélien Pradié, deputy for the first constituency of Lot and former number 2 of the Republicans, resigned from LR a week ago, obtains a comfortable 42%, in a scheduled triangular, unless there is an NFP withdrawal.
In Lozère, the president of the Lozère Department (35.18%), Sophie Pantel, is neck and neck with the RN Luc-Étienne Goussau (33.91%). The outgoing deputy, Pierre Morel-à-L’Huissier, four terms under his belt and heir to Jacques Blanc, is third with 24%… The end of an era.
In the first constituency of Tarn-et-Garonne, the mayor of Montauban LR-RN Brigitte Barèges (43.93%) is ahead of Valérie Rabault, outgoing PS deputy (36.81%).
