The deputies are summoned today, Saturday June 29, for the budgetary orientation debate following the publication of the multi-year budgetary and economic programming document (DPBEP) which serves as a reference for the development of the finance law of the coming year of which it defines the orientations, the overall level of expected revenues and projected expenditures on the basis of the evolution of the national and international economic situation. In Senegal, it covers a rolling three-year period, adjusted annually.
Resources and expenses for the period 2025-2027 are projected at 18,577 billion FCFA and 20,859.5 billion FCFA respectively. Thus, over the three-year period, the resource forecasts (18,577 billion FCFA) are revised upwards by 1,443.2 billion FCFA in absolute value and 8.4% in relative value compared to the DPBEP of October 2024-2026. This is what emerges from the Multi-annual Budgetary and Economic Programming document (DPBEP) which serves as a reference for the preparation of the finance law for the coming year, the orientations of which it defines, the overall level of expected revenues and projected expenditures on the basis of the evolution of the national and international economic situation. Concerning charges, they increased from 19,524.2 billion FCFA to 20,859.5 billion FCFA, an increase of 1,335.3 billion FCFA in absolute value and 6.7% in relative value.
According to the document, this development is mainly explained by the upward revision of projections for investment and personnel expenditure. For the first year of the three-year period, expenditure forecasts would stand at 6,390.2 billion FCFA against 5,755.4 billion FCFA, an increase of 634.8 billion FCFA in absolute value and 11% in relative value compared to the 2024 finance law.
The evolution of revenue forecasts is as follows: – tax revenues for an amount of 16,027.6 billion FCFA against 14,678.5 billion FCFA in the previous DPBEP 2024-2026 of October 2023, an increase of 1,349.2 billion FCFA in absolute value and 9.2% in relative value; non-tax revenues for an amount of 850.6 billion FCFA against 768.7 billion FCFA in the previous DPBEP 2024-2026, an increase of 81.9 billion FCFA in absolute value and 10.7% in relative value; budgetary grants and capital grants (projects) for respective amounts of 142.86 billion FCFA and 820.4 billion FCFA, i.e. variations of 0.5% and 2.6% compared to the updated DPBEP 2024-2026.
Expenditure excluding Special Treasury Accounts (CST) is estimated over the period 2025-2027 at 20,124 billion FCFA compared to 18,779.12 billion FCFA in the previous DPBEP of October 2023. It includes debt interest for 2,297.6 billion FCFA; – personnel expenditure excluding social assistance benefits for 5,068.3 billion FCFA; investments in internal resources for 3,970.4 billion FCFA; investments in external resources for 2,730 billion FCFA. As for CST expenditure, the amounts are projected at 735.5 billion FCFA over the period. This change is attributable on the one hand to the National Retirement Fund and, on the other hand, to the integration of the two funds, namely: the intergenerational fund and the stabilization fund.
Concerning debt management, given that the margins for absorbing shocks are limited (according to the Debt Sustainability Analysis-DSA carried out by Senegal and the IMF), it is strongly recommended to identify and ensure the proper implementation of projects financed by these instruments. In this respect, it would be appropriate to negotiate the best financing conditions while prioritizing concessional and semi-concessional financing; to ensure the strengthening of budgetary conciliation, in particular through proper implementation of the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS); to strengthen the capacities for analyzing financial and economic models of financing by Public-Private Partnerships as well as the capacities for negotiating these contracts; to define a regulatory framework setting out the conditions for granting guarantees as well as the methods for assessing the counterparty risk that the beneficiaries of these guarantees would represent. The analysis of the projected public debt service for the period 2025-2027 shows a gradual increase in the service from 2024 to 2026 with a peak in 2026 which is explained by the repayment of several OTAs (Office of Technical Assistance), issued in 2023 and the start of the principal repayment of the 2018 Eurobond in Euro for 218.65 billion FCFA.
Furthermore, it should be noted that this service will evolve according to future drawings and commitments, exchange rates and variable interests and an update will be carried out before the Initial Finance Law of 2025.
INVESTMENTS WILL AMOUNT TO 6,700.4 BILLION FCFA AGAINST 6,785.01 BILLION FCFA IN THE DPBEP 2024-2026
For investment, the three-year forecasts are set at 6,700.4 billion FCFA compared to 6,785.01 billion FCFA in the DPBEP 2024-2026, i.e. a drop of 84.6 billion FCFA in absolute value and 1.3% in value. relative.
The 2025-2027 multi-year investment program is part of the guidelines adopted by the Government to place Senegal on the path to becoming a sovereign, just and prosperous country. Regarding external resources, the Government intends to intensify efforts to significantly improve the level of absorption of funds. Over the three-year period 2025-2027, external resources are projected as follows: 2025: 724.4 billion FCFA, including 455 billion FCFA in loans and 269.4 billion FCFA in grants; – 2026: 924.1 billion FCFA, including 652.1 billion FCFA in loans and 272 billion FCFA in grants; – 2027: 1,081.4 billion FCFA, including 802.5 in loans and 278.9 billion FCFA in grants.
