The most closely watched legislative elections in recent history are beginning. Voters in some territories are already heading to the polls this Saturday, with turnout expected to rise sharply across France, pending the possibility of the far right in power. French voters in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon will open the show at noon (metropolitan time), followed by those in the Antilles, Guyana, French Polynesia and those living on the American continent.
Find on our dedicated pages the candidates in your constituency and, on June 30 from 8 p.m., the results of the first round of the legislative elections in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and throughout France.
The renewed participation is partly explained by the potentially historic consequences of these legislative elections, which for the first time since 1997 will not be aligned with the presidential election. For now, Brice Teinturier, Deputy Managing Director of Ipsos, has identified “two dynamics”.
More than 2 million proxies
“A dynamic of hope, left-wing voters say to themselves that suddenly there can be an alternation (…) and this is even more the case among RN voters. And a driving force for mobilization which is negative politicization, fear, the fear aroused both by the RN, and in part of the electorate also by La France insoumise or the left coalition,” detailed the analyst.
Signs of the strong mobilization expected on June 30 and July 7: the number of proxies skyrocketed to exceed 2 million, and online voting open until Thursday to French people living abroad reached a record (410 000 votes compared to 250,000 in 2022). As a reminder, the candidates are required to observe an electoral truce until the polling stations close on Sunday evening.
Screenings in seats always difficult
Who will benefit from the wave? First to the National Rally and its allies from the right according to the polls. Two opinion surveys published Friday (Ifop for LCI-Figaro-Sud Radio, and Odoxa for Public Senate-Regional Press-Nouvel Obs) credited the far-right camp with 35 to 36.5% of the votes.
The alliance of the New Popular Front (LFI, PS, Ecologists, PCF, Place publique) is given around 27.5-29% of the votes, while the Macronist camp would be relegated to around 20.5-21% of the votes. votes according to these institutes. And according to certain opinion polls, obtaining an absolute majority (289 deputies at least) is now possible for the National Rally and its allies.
Projections in the seat which nevertheless come up against serious unknowns. Starting with the number of triangular races on Sunday evening, expected to rise sharply again, and the number of withdrawals in the hours that will follow in an attempt to unite votes against the RN.
