OTTAWA –
Fresh off the Conservatives’ landslide victory in the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection, new seat projection data from Nanos Research shows that ridings previously considered safe for the Liberals are increasingly up for grabs.
On the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line, Nik Nanos, director of Nanos Research, said the latest numbers suggest “tough times ahead for a Liberal.”
“What we see is the Liberal stronghold of Toronto, basically under siege,” Nanos said. “So maybe Toronto—St. Paul’s is the canary in the coal mine.
Conservative Don Stewart defied odds to win a closely watched Toronto-area byelection on Monday, sending political shockwaves by claiming victory in a longtime Liberal stronghold riding.
The result of the by-election, Nanos said, could retrospectively be seen as “a referendum on the government and on Justin Trudeau.”
The Liberals’ defeat also rekindled speculation that party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could resign before the next general election, currently scheduled for October 2025.
“We can’t project a byelection onto the general election,” Nanos warned, but he added that it was remarkable how much better the Conservatives did in Toronto—St. Paul’s compared to the last general election, and similarly how poorly the Liberals did compared to three years ago, which “shows where the momentum is.”
“But I think the Conservatives and (leader) Pierre Poilievre want to run against Justin Trudeau,” he added. “By winning, they’ve essentially created conditions that put pressure on Trudeau to resign or be pushed out. And that resets everything.”
Nanos said a Trudeau resignation would change the “political calculus” for all parties, but especially for the Conservatives, who have largely focused their messaging around Poilievre versus Trudeau.
Regional projections
In addition to the surprise victory in Toronto—St. Paul’s, Nanos said, the new data shows the Conservatives “are much more competitive in Toronto.”
The latest Nanos seat projections for the Toronto area are on the left, while the 2021 election results for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Comparing Nanos’ latest seat projections to the 2021 general election results, Ontario’s projections are “mostly blue” overall, despite some “red dots.”
The Conservatives are also contesting “very strongly in a number of Ottawa ridings outside the immediate downtown core, which could prove to be races to watch whenever Canadians head to the polls.”
The latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in parts of southern and eastern Ontario are on the left, while 2021 election results for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
Nanos said the Liberals could also suffer a setback in Atlantic Canada, with Cape Breton and Halifax in play.
Either way, the Conservatives are likely to win “a number” of seats in the East.
Nanos’ latest seat projections for Atlantic Canada ridings are shown on the left, while the 2021 election results for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
The Prairies remain a priority for the Conservatives, while British Columbia is “one of the most complex environments” because the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all extremely competitive there, Nanos said.
The riding of Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent, is notably too tight to be elected, according to Nanos’ latest seat projections.
“These are really multi-party races with split votes,” Nanos said, adding that B.C. can vary significantly across the province.
Nanos’ latest seat projections for Vancouver-area ridings are shown on the left, while 2021 election results for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)
“But zoom in on Vancouver… you can see on the right, the previous election, very red, very liberal,” he also said.
“Look how blue it is right now. This speaks to the radical change that is happening right now. »
Nanos said several ridings that could see a three-way split “really, really help the Conservatives.”
More generally, voting intentions across the country continue to show that the Conservatives are well ahead of other parties, a trend that Nanos says has been consistent for almost a year.
Ballot tracking
Nanos Research’s latest tracking shows the Conservatives at 41 percent, the Liberals at 27 percent, the NDP at 14 percent, the Bloc Québécois at eight percent and the Greens at four percent.
(Nanos Research)
“It will be interesting to see if, throughout the summer, (the Conservatives) maintain this double-digit advantage,” Nanos said.
The pollster said that while the Conservatives have remained above 40 per cent for months, any change in the margin of their lead was due to fluctuations with the Liberals and the NDP.
“Think of Justin Trudeau as your favorite prime minister. He is 12 points behind,” Nanos also said. “There is currently no political influence for the Liberals, neither for their brand nor for their party leader. »
NDP hits back with new ad
With new Liberal strongholds potentially up for grabs, the party’s confidence and supply agreement partner, the NDP, made its largest pre-election ad buy since 2015.
A new 30-second ad featuring Singh sets up what the party is calling the “Rules Change Tour,” and it targets both Conservatives and Liberals.
According to NDP National Director Anne McGrath, the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection made it clear that the next general election will “definitely” be a swing election and, therefore, the party will “absolutely” devote more resources to historically red constituencies.
“Seats that may not have been up for grabs before are up for grabs,” McGrath said in an interview with CTV News.
“I think it’s clear that what everyone thought was a stronghold, one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, was not a safe seat,” she also said. “So that means there is no safe seat.”
The Liberals’ defeat has many political observers wondering whether the NDP will soon walk away from its confidence and supply pact, and Nanos said the time has come for the party to make a decision on that front.
Asked about that, McGrath wouldn’t say whether the NDP was currently considering abandoning the deal, but said the party was debt-free for the first time in nearly a decade and was building up a war fund to devote as many resources as possible to the next general election, whenever it comes.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen to it in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Methodology
The Nanos Weekly Report is produced by Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, with operations in Canada and the United States. Data is based on random interviews of 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited through a landline and cell phone random dial sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, aged 18 and over . The random sample of 1,000 respondents can be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. Interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.
With reporting from CTV News’ Judy Trinh
