Guest on RMC-BFMTV this Monday, November 25, the former Prime Minister spoke about the recent geopolitical upheavals. It calls for adapting support for the Ukrainian war effort accordingly.
“The arrival of Donald Trump accelerates a negotiation process. This must not be to the detriment of Ukraine.” The election of Donald Trump for a second term as head of the United States, a tipping point in the war in Ukraine? This is the analysis that Dominique de Villepin made this Monday, November 25 on RMC-BFMTV.
While hypothetical negotiations between Ukraine and Russia for an end to the war could be headed by the Republican president after his arrival at the White House in January 2025, the former head of the French government calls on France and the Europeans to “not to be spectators”.
“In this negotiation, we must not be spectators watching Donald Trump discuss with Vladimir Putin at the risk of imposing a peace that the Ukrainians do not want,” firmly maintains the French diplomat and lawyer.
Both Moscow and kyiv thus seem dependent on a free spirit, Donald Trump, who in his first term embodied a non-interventionist vision, preferring instead to disengage the United States from conflicts. The president-elect’s teams have already confirmed that they are working on an “arrangement” on Sunday.
“What we need to discuss is who will be at the table, whether it is an agreement, an armistice, how to bring both sides to the table and what the framework will be. “an arrangement,” Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s national security adviser, said on Fox News.
“Ideal peace” or Ukrainian weakening
In the eyes of Dominique de Villepin, the end of the war in Ukraine can occur in three ways. The worst scenario, in his eyes, would be that of an “imposed peace” on Ukraine where kyiv could be forced to “let go of 20% of its territory” and thus renounce its sovereignty, or even have to abandon its hopes of join NATO.
After 1,000 days of war, Russia and Ukraine await Trump’s arrival
Faced with this dark scenario, Dominique de Villepin prefers an “ideal peace”, where Russia would choose to withdraw after its aggression.
“There is a peace that would be ideal and that is where we must leave. There is Russian aggression: we must respect international law. It is up to Russia to leave Ukrainian territory and that is for Ukraine to be able to have its full sovereignty”, he explains, recognizing an “unlikely” projection.
Setting “red lines”
So there remains one in between. A status quo starting above all with a cessation of fighting, a ceasefire without immediately redrawing the cards. According to him, it is on this option “that the Americans are working today”. It therefore remains to define “guarantees” in this context: can Ukraine join NATO? Should a no-fly zone be defined?
In these upcoming negotiations, according to him, France must get closer to its European allies and unite behind Ukraine, helping it to set “red lines” in the negotiations. Without, however, resorting to a potential dispatch of French or European ground troops, which would, according to him, mark “a risk of mechanical escalation”.
Conditions, timetable, borders… In any case, the diplomat believes that “the Ukrainians must speak.” “They are the ones who die, they are the ones who suffer.”
