CAC 40, Crédit Agricole, Carrefour, Orange, Airbus… on the Momentum program

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– Stock market: stocks on the rise

The Paris Stock Exchange quickly erased the previous week’s attempted rebound this week, with a 2% drop from one Friday to the next. While for the first round of the legislative elections this weekend, the most recent polls give a clear advantage to the National Rally, followed by the New Popular Front, nervousness on the markets has increased a little, observes LBP AM, the asset manager of La Banque Postale, for whom “the results of this first round will give a more precise idea of ​​the final result, on July 7“. Indeed, the gap between the 10-year rate of France and that of Germany (gauge of the degree of risk perceived in the situation in France) has widened. “Stay careful about the CAC 40 seems very reasonable», in the eyes of LBP AM, for whom it is better not to be too exposed to French equities at this stage.

The French economy remains quite sluggish. Household confidence fell in June (and again, the survey was carried out before the European elections) and remains well below its long-term average. Households’ feelings about their purchasing power remain very negative. And that on their future standard of living falls further. While the purchasing managers’ indices in the euro zone (the PMI surveys, leading indicators on the trajectory of economic growth), weighed down by fears over the outcome of the French elections, came as an unpleasant surprise, the Economic and Monetary Union has recently suffered economic figures that are lower than economists’ forecasts, like the United States.

American household consumption lower than expected, a bad point for the economy

In Uncle Sam’s country, on the occasion of the revision of the GDP growth figures for the first quarter, household consumption ultimately increased by only 1.5% at an annualized rate, compared to 2% initially estimated, resulting in a less buoyant dynamic for the quarter that is ending. In addition, orders for capital goods showed a surprise decline in May, so investment could decline slightly, after the solid growth observed in the first quarter, warns LBP AM.

The scenario of a Fed rate cut is more and more likely, the stock market appreciates

If the deceleration in economic growth is confirmed in the second quarter in the United States, this will be good news for the Fed, which would be strengthened in its hopes of lowering key rates, judges LBP AM, which expects two rate cuts by the end of 2024, with a first easing in September. The continued increase in unemployment benefits, at their highest since 2021, could herald a weakening in the labor market that could support the prospect of a Fed rate cut, estimates the asset manager. Especially since the American inflation figures published on Friday were welcomed by Wall Street. The report shows that if we exclude high housing prices, core inflation (inflation excluding volatile items such as food and energy) has not accelerated and this is what really matters to the Fed, notes ABN Amro Investment Solutions.

Donald Trump strengthens his advantage over Joe Biden, bad news for inflation in the medium term

On the US presidential election front, the first debate between US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden went in favor of the Republican candidate. Joe Biden found himself in difficulty several times, hesitating and having difficulty expressing himself, thus fueling criticism of his advanced age. While Donald Trump also found himself in difficulty, Joe Biden’s poor performance is what caught the attention of the financial community. However, given his economic program, a second Trump term would be likely to boost inflation, with a possible new shock on the horizon.

The CAC 40 falls again, but Momentum, the investment letter from Capital, is holding its own

While the CAC 40 fell by 2% over the week, Momentum’s stock market selection generally experienced a much more favorable trend, such as the rise in TotalEnergies (+0.9%) or the good performance of stocks in the European healthcare sector (stable from one Friday to the next, on average, thanks in particular to the 2.6% jump in shares of Danish giant Novo Nordisk, which announced good news for its flagship drug Wegovy). Above all, Momentum warned its readers at the right time of the high risk of a plunge in Eurofins Scientific, Airbus and Sanofi shares, which materialized spectacularly this week.

CAC 40, Crédit Agricole, Carrefour, Orange, Airbus… on the Momentum program this week

This week, in addition to our daily scenarios on the CAC 40, we have assessed the potential and prospects of many stocks (with bullish or bearish scenarios): Orange, ArcelorMittal, Veolia Environnement, LVMH, Airbus, Michelin, Crédit Agricole, Legrand, Carrefour, Kering, Hermès, Bouygues, Axa and Stellantis. We have also taken stock of stocks in the European healthcare sector. Discover our scenarios on the CAC 40 and listed stocks every day in Momentum. And take advantage of the summer sales, with a 30% discount on the price of our annual subscription. To sign up, simply click on the link inserted above. In addition, discover Technical analysis in 50 practical cases (published this month) and Chartist figures of technical analysis (published in February 2024), two books that I wrote and which provide methods for investing wisely in the stock market.