Damien’s Question
Legislative elections: why should we expect a large number of triangulars in the second round?
Hello Damien, and thank you for your question,
This Sunday, June 30, the first round of the legislative elections will be held. Unlike the presidential election or the European elections, where all French voters vote among a number of well-identified candidates, the electoral offer depends on where you live, as in departmental or municipal elections.
In all, these are 577 different elections which take place in the 577 constituencies what does the country have? In the Var, for example, there are 8, and 9 in the Alpes-Maritimes, giving rise to as many deputies.
On the evening of the first round, two scenarios may arise. If a candidate receives an absolute majority, that is to say 50% of the votes, no need for a second round: he is elected deputy for his constituency. If necessary, the legislative elections are played in the second round.
The 12.5% mark of registered voters
In this case, are qualified for the second round the two candidates who came first in the first round. But also those who have gathered at least 12.5% of registered voters on the electoral lists. A clarification which can allow the presence in the second round of a third candidate (a triangular), or even a fourth (a quadrangular).
And this July 7, there could be more people than usual to claim it. For what? Because participation promises to be significant. According to surveys, it could return to the high level of the 1990s, around 60 to 70%. As a reminder, in 2022, it had not exceeded 50% at the national level during the first round (47.51%), down 1.2% compared to 2017.
“With a participation of 64%, the entry ticket for the second round falls to 17%, 18% of the votes”compared to 25% when participation barely reaches one in two voters, explains Frédéric Dabi, the general opinion director of the IFOP, at Monde.
“A hundred triangulars” according to PS senator Patrick Kanner
As a result, the second round should be marked by numerous triangulars. “We’re announcing a hundred,” PS senator Patrick Kanner commented on Public Senate. In 2022, on the evening of the first round, only eight constituencies were concerned, including two in Hauts-de-Seine and Lot-et-Garonne. In 2017, only one triangular took place, compared to 34 in 2012.
But how many will actually take place this July 7? Several left-wing leaders and rare Macronists called on Tuesday to tie a withdrawal agreement between “all democratic forces”from LR to LFI, to counter the RN.
This agreement “should be clearly displayed now, without waiting for June 30 by the leaders of all democratic forces, whether they belong to the New Popular Front, the outgoing majority or the Republican right”estimate in a column in the newspaper The world the signatories, including Olivier Faure, the boss of the PS, Marine Tondelier, head of the Ecologists, but also Clément Beaune and Agnès Pannier-Runacher, former and current ministers of Emmanuel Macron.
No withdrawal instructions for the Macronist camp and the LR
In the immediate future, the Macronist camp and Les Républicains (LR) refused to give a general instruction for their candidates to withdraw if the latter are the least well placed in triangulars including an RN candidate during the second round on July 7.
On campaign documents, Ensemble, the Macronist coalition, puts the far right and the left back to back: “Neither RN nor Nupes, only one useful vote”, we can read. Last week, the president of MoDem, François Bayrou, brushed aside the question on Sud Radio, refusing at least at this stage to choose between “the plague and cholera”.
Sincerely.
