On the credit side, 2025 begins as well as 2024 ended. Credit rates continue to fall. A situation so unexpected that you have to take advantage of it. In the absence of adoption of the Budget, however, there is complete uncertainty for borrowers. Besides, investors are not mistaken. France's borrowing rate is soaring at the start of the year. It equals its highest level of last year (around 3.3%). The gaps with our European neighbors continue to grow (around +0.9 with Germany!).
What is there to fear about a rise in rates? Nay! Currently, they evolve between 3.3% and 3.4% over 20 and 25 years, on average. “Political instability has so far had no impact on credit rates, which continue to fall slightly regardless of the loan duration.», rejoices Fabienne Laborde, operations director of Le Partenaire.fr, real estate loan broker. They should continue to fall, according to brokerage experts. At least in the first half. For the second, it's more vague.
The start of the year is synonymous with enthusiasm on the part of the banks who want to collect as many new files as possible. The proof in figures: credit production soared by more than 50% between March and October 2024, according to the Banque de France. “Competition between banks remains in place in this new year», assures Caroline Arnould, general manager of the broker Cafpi who dares a rather bold prediction: an average rate of 2.5% by the end of the year. “Barring political hazards», she adds. However, it is precisely the uncertainties surrounding the new government that are making the headlines at the moment.
Towards the end of the price decline?
Although they confirm the drop in rates at the start of 2025, Cafpi's competitors are more cautious. “The decline should reach a low of 3% over 20 years and 3.2/3.25% over 25 years in Januarypredicts Maël Bernier, spokesperson for Meilleurtaux. I then expect rates to stabilize during the first half of 2025.» A prospect which could satisfy, however, certain households who have borrowed at 4% over 25 years. The rate difference must be at least 0.7% or even 1% and you must have repaid less than a third of your loan for the renegotiation to be profitable.
So not sure that the 3% bar has been reached. On average. Because currently, it is possible to borrow at less than 3%, particularly over 20 years. But this advantage concerns above all the excellent files. The others risk having to settle for 3% at best. A rate which, given the political context, would be appreciable. “Today, the rates practiced are more than 1% lower than those proposed at the highest in December 2023underlines Caroline Arnould. However, 1% difference on a loan of 200,000 euros over 25 years represents a saving of 25,000 euros.»
Not to mention the general drop in real estate prices. Up to -5% in Reims and Nantes over the last 12 months, according to the National Real Estate Federation. And that's the downside: these declines are still too small to encourage more households to buy housing. Worse: “Prices have stabilized since February 2024 after experiencing the biggest drop in 15 years», Declares Loïc Cantin, president of Fnaim. The proof: prices fell “only” by 0.8% in one year in France, and by 0.4% in Paris. And even increased by 0.8% in rural communities. Only the top 10 (excluding Paris) and the Paris region show higher declines over the last 12 months. And still, they remain very limited: between -2% and -4%.
