The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), meeting this Saturday, decided to keep its key rate unchanged at 8% while pursuing a prudent monetary policy. This decision comes in a context marked by a significant reduction in the current deficit, which stood at 2,611 million dinars (1.6% of GDP) during the first eleven months of 2024, compared to 3,464 million dinars (2.6% of GDP). 3% of GDP) over the same period in 2023.
According to the BCT, this improvement is mainly explained by the consolidation of work income and tourism receipts, despite a slight deterioration in the trade balance. It also allowed a reconstitution of foreign exchange reserves, which reached 25.6 billion dinars, representing 115 days of imports at the end of December 2024.
The Council, however, warned of risks surrounding the future trajectory of inflation, despite a slight easing in November, when the rate fell to 6.6%. These risks are linked to expected increases in wages and the persistence of pressure on production costs in a context of low dynamism in production capacities.
In terms of outlook, the BCT forecasts a gradual slowdown in inflation to an average of 7% for 2024 and 6.2% for 2025. However, uncertainties linked to the evolution of international prices and public finance imbalances continue. to weigh on economic stability.
Monetary authorities emphasize that, despite the progress made, vigilance remains necessary to maintain price stability and support resilient economic growth.
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