According to analysts from Attijari global research (AGR), Bank Al-Maghrib should lower its key rate to 2.25% in 2025, reinforcing an accommodative monetary stance to support investment while controlling inflationary pressures.
In December 2024, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) reduced its key rate to 2.5%, continuing a dynamic started in June. This decision is based on gradual control of inflation, now estimated at 1% for the whole year, compared to 6.1% in 2023.
Analysts from Attijari global research (AGR) anticipate a further reduction in the key rate to 2.25% in 2025, a scenario made possible by the return of real rates to positive territory and by the solid anchoring of the dirham to its basket of reference. This movement comes in a context marked by notable progress on the inflation front. After a historic peak of 10% in February 2023, inflation fell to 0.7% in October 2024.
This trajectory results from targeted budgetary measures, such as support for agricultural chains and progressive targeting of subsidies. However, projections for 2025 signal a slight increase to 2.4%, fueled by external factors, such as geopolitical tensions and unpredictable weather conditions.
Breath of fresh air
In this context, reducing rates constitutes a strategic lever. It offers a breath of fiscal oxygen, saving around 620 million dirhams on the Treasury's annual interest charge, according to AGR. This margin is essential to finance national priorities, such as post-earthquake reconstruction, the energy transition or even investments linked to the organization of the 2030 World Cup.
The public investment effort planned for the period 2025-2030 thus reaches 1,700 billion dirhams, the equivalent of 1.2 times the national GDP. An ambitious level which reflects the Kingdom's desire to transform structural constraints into economic opportunities.
However, this strategy is based on a delicate balance between financing projects and preserving budgetary balances. Faced with these challenges, the central bank is adopting a measured approach. Its positioning among the lowest key rates in the region illustrates a desire to stimulate the real economy while maintaining macroeconomic stability. A prudent but proactive policy, which intends to strengthen investor confidence, in support of economic growth forecast at 3.9% in 2025.
Stated objective: to enable Morocco to position itself in the face of the reluctance of the global economy.
Ayoub Ibnoulfassih / ECO Inspirations
