“Our ancestors invented the internal combustion engine, now we have to manage the explosion of the engine“, this was well summed up yesterday morning by Philippe Schulz, Director of upstream technological partnerships at Ampère (Groupe Renault). And this above all sums up well the current situation of road transport which has the particularity of being the first emitter of greenhouse gases in France ahead of industry, farmers and all other sectors. A French specificity since among most of our European neighbors, transport is not at the top. For a reason which is actually very simple: in France, electricity is mainly of nuclear origin, which naturally puts transport in the lead.
As recalled by Gaëtan Monnier, director of the Mobility results center of IFPEN (French Institute of Petroleum and New Energies) who organized a conference that we attended, efforts must therefore be focused primarily on transport. But how can we convert a road fleet to more than 45 million registered units while respecting the line set by Europe: 55% CO2 reduction from 2030, then 100% in 2035? Reducing carbon emissions from new light vehicles to zero by 2035 does not necessarily imply the disappearance of combustion engines. They will simply have to use “climate neutral” fuels.. But since we are currently unable to produce enough for everyone, the automobile industry has therefore embarked on another path: electric vehicles.
Is the thermal engine really dead?
The debate, organized by IFPEN, was held by Marc Lejeune, Renault Trucks Research Director, but also Mathieu Soulas, New Mobility Director at TotalEnergies. All the themes of future mobility were therefore addressed: electric vehicles, synthetic fuels, hydrogen and biofuels. Everyone agreed that freedom of technological choice was essential. In other words: imposing battery vehicles would be a mistake. The important thing is to achieve the objective of 100% reduction in CO2 emissions, but the end will justify the means which should not be set by political powers. For Philippe Schulz, we must “return to reason with holistic societal environmental benefit/cost analyses”. Taking these parameters into account, it is not certain that the electric vehicle will necessarily be a winner in all areas of the globe…
Clearly, the combustion engine can absolutely exist after 2035 if, by then, a solution is found to supply it with massively available and clean fuel, even if this will not eliminate NOx emissions and other elements. from combustion. But this is technically unfeasible at present given the glut of synthetic fuels and green hydrogen for electricity.. Marc Lejeune reminded us: a heavy goods vehicle running on hydrogen will consume 3 times more electricity per kilometer than a battery-powered heavy goods vehicle, taking into account fuel production. It is therefore not tenable today, neither industrially nor economically. But everything that has been cited here does not prevent Japanese manufacturers, to name just a few, from already betting big on this conditional future.
“Clean” fuel, a promising future?
Alternative fuels (eFuels, HVO, biogas, etc.) also have their chance but they will suffer from two things: their cost, and competition with sectors which cannot be electrified by batteries. Aviation is already the leading customer of biodiesel and synthetic fuels (SAF, Sustainable Alternative Fuel) along with maritime, which should deprive road transport of a large part of these liquids in the future. Priority to sectors which cannot do without.
Finally, let us cite another problem for synthetic fuels that is rarely discussed. To produce it, CO2 must be recovered directly from the source (biogenic, on farms, or at the factory outlet in industry) since capturing CO2 from the ambient air is far too energy-intensive. CO2 being an inert gas, it takes colossal energy to recover it from the ambient air. And this “easy” to capture industrial or agricultural CO2 is not unlimited! António Pires da Cruz, Program Manager, IFPEN, was questioned on the subject but the Institute did not provide a clear and quantified answer on this issue. For the moment we feel that synthetic fuels are a niche with a still very uncertain future on the road…
The electric car and its disadvantages
The question constantly comes up in all debates: if we have to turn to rechargeable electric vehicles, we will have to ask ourselves the question of the price of electricity in the future. And Philippe Schulz wanted to be transparent on the subject: “At one point or another, electricity taxes will change“. You guessed it, in the medium or long term the State will have to recover all the taxes it will have lost when road fuels compete with home charging.
And then, there remains the problem of the cost of purchasing vehicles. The boss of Ampere’s technological partnerships calls for a return to reason: “we must return to smaller and lighter cars, to fundamentals. It’s a collective job, we must respond to the “real” needs of customers and not the “felt” needs. No more huge batteries of 100 kWh or more, too large vehicles which only meet episodic needs during the year. But will the SUV-loving customer agree to change their habits and swap their Austral for a “Clio” type format?
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