But nothing is going as planned, with prices currently around €47 to €49 per megawatt hour. “What is happening is not good at all, this price zone is very highDamien Ernst regretted. What gets us in is the end of Russian gas imports via pipelines that pass through Ukraine. We are talking about 200 terawatt hours passing under Europe’s nose. Concretely, it is Belgium’s annual consumption which is no longer available on the markets.“
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The problem is that the alternatives are few, if not non-existent. “Other markets are saturated. We could rely on deliveries of liquefied gas (LNG), still via Russia, but we are talking about transport by boat, which de facto limits the volumes.he says. Additionally, it appears that the United States is putting pressure on Europe to stop all trade with Russia, which adds pressure on the markets.“
The solution could come from Qatar, which could replace Russian deliveries. “By a simple game of musical chairs, one could imagine that Russia delivers to Asian countries and that Qatar turns to Europe. But, in reality, Russia should deliver liquefied gas to Asia, but does not have enough ships to ensure the same delivery volume as to Europe, since the route is much longer. He would need twice as many boats. Therefore, markets would remain under pressure as Asian countries – such as China – would continue to order their gas from Qatar.“
Needless to say, the news is bad so far. “To be honest, I fear the worstbreathes Damien Ernst. Because we can add to these geopolitical problems other climate concerns. It is quite cold in Europe this winter, which obviously affects reserves. Worse than that, we really lack wind, and the wind turbines therefore don’t work very well. This means that to produce electricity, we strongly need gas.“
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The year 2025 therefore does not look very good. “If we exclude the scenario of peace with Russia, I do not see a short-term solution, especially since the United States has no problem on its territory for the delivery of gas or even oil. They have nothing to lose in this story.“
For consumers, those who have signed a fixed contract in recent months should not move. And those with a variable contract must monitor the markets and are exposed to another surge in prices. It is perhaps better to sign a fixed contract, certainly quite expensive today, to be sure of the amount to pay.
