France prepares for the fall of its government

(Paris) Less than six months after the massive blow of dissolution, the French National Assembly is preparing to censure the government of Michel Barnier on Wednesday, a gesture unprecedented since 1962 which would plunge the country into great political and budgetary uncertainty.

The suspense seems limited on paper: censorship of the government of Mr. Barnier, a 73-year-old veteran of the French right, is already requested by a large majority of deputies from the left and the extreme right , even before the debate scheduled from 10 a.m. (Eastern time), and the vote expected around 6 p.m. or 2 p.m. (Eastern time).

The two motions of censure tabled by the left-wing opposition (New Popular Front) and the far-right (the National Rally and its allies) are supported by 325 deputies, far more than the 288 needed to bring down the government, which which has not occurred in France since 1962.

A “responsibility reflex” from deputies is however “possible” to avoid censorship from the executive, in “the best interest of the country”, hoped Tuesday evening Michel Barnier, interviewed on two television channels.

President Emmanuel Macron, on a trip to Saudi Arabia, for his part affirmed that he could not “believe in the vote of censorship” of the government, adding that overthrowing the executive would be “a dissolution of minds”.

This possible censorship follows months of an eventful political life, started by the dissolution of the National Assembly decided in June by the Head of State, after European elections which had recorded the rout of his troops in the face of the extreme right.

There followed long discussions leading to a fragile government of right and center, when the left represented the first force in the lower house, ahead of the Macronist center and the extreme right, without any of these forces having of a majority.

The left, denouncing an “electoral hold-up”, had already presented a motion of censure at the beginning of October, which the far right had refused to vote on, allowing the government to survive.

“punitive” budget

“Censoring this budget is, unfortunately, the only way the Constitution gives us to protect the French from a dangerous, unjust and punitive budget,” Marine Le Pen, however, justified Tuesday, to whom the Prime Minister tried, in vain, to to achieve neutrality in a vote relating to health and pension spending.

Three times unsuccessful candidate in the presidential election, M^me Le Pen has her eyes fixed on the next presidential election scheduled for 2027. But her political destiny is suspended on a court decision expected on March 31: she risks a sentence of five years of ineligibility with immediate effect for embezzlement of funds from the European Parliament for the benefit of his party.

In the event of censorship, it would be up to Mr. Macron, elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, to appoint a new prime minister. It took him nearly 50 days to appoint Mr. Barnier on September 5, after many twists and turns and controversies.

This political instability partly explains the nervousness of the markets, in a context of heavy debt: France’s 10-year borrowing rate even rose very briefly above that of Greece, traditionally a poor student in this area in the EU last Wednesday.

The French government risks falling for having planned 60 billion in savings in its 2025 budget proposal. Its objective is to reduce the public deficit in relation to GDP first to around 5% – against 6.1% in 2024 –, then below the authorized European ceiling of 3% in 2029.

This new political crisis comes just before the reopening this weekend of Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral, five years after its fire on April 15, 2019, with many personalities expected, including American president-elect Donald Trump. France already had a government responsible for handling current affairs when it hosted the Olympics last summer.