A Barnier government in the hot seat, this Wednesday, December 4, while the two motions of censure, tabled by La France insoumise and the National Rally, are examined in turn. The fate of the Prime Minister and his government, more than uncertain, concerns a number of listeners on the switchboard, who wonder about the possible continuation of discussions on the 2025 budget. In his televised intervention last night, Tuesday November 3, Michel Barnier has in fact promised 18 million French people an increase in their taxes, if his government was censored.
An auditor, a registered taxi driver in Paris – a profession which had demonstrated in recent days against the new draft agreement with Health Insurance – then wonders: “SIf the government is censored, what are the next steps? What will happen to this budget?“Benjamin Morel, political scientist, lecturer in public law at Paris II Panthéon-Assas, and author of “The Parliament, temple of the Republic from 1789 to the present day“, published by Passés/Composés, answers him: “SIf Michel Barnier ever falls, a priori, the budget is suspended. We believe that the budget, despite everything, remains under discussion because the fall of a government does not cause the texts to become obsolete.“. A discussion on the same text, however uncertain, warns the constitutionalist, since for a resigning government: “who sits on the bench? Who gives their opinions on the amendments?“. From a purely procedural point of view, Benjamin Morel then explains, the most likely is that the 2024 budget will be renewed for 2025.
“It’s only a way to save time and get through the winter, but little more”
Benjamin Morelfranceinfo
If the government falls, the question that will then be asked of Emmanuel Macron is: “what do we do?” continues Aurélie Herbemont, from the franceinfo political service, while many are wondering about the future and Michel Barnier has already ruled out the possibility of being renamed. “We could keep a resigned government for a few days. The proof, this summer, Gabriel Attal remained resigned for almost two months” replies Aurélie Herbemont, but many do not want to relive the “soap opera this summer, with all the uncertainties that are linked“.
Armel Balogog, from the True or False cell of franceinfo, is interested in the figure put forward by Michel Barnier, who promised tax increases to 18 million French people: “a figure taken from a report from the French Observatory of Economic Conditions which questions the impact of a possible freeze in the income tax scale”. In its report, the observatory explains that this freeze would prevent the evolution of inflation from being taken into account, which would penalize “17.6 million French households who would have to pay more taxes if the 2024 budget was renewed. In fact, nearly 400,000 households would also become taxable” adds Armel Balogog. In theory in any case, since she adds that if a new government was appointed and a budget was passed, it could again index the tax on inflation. The RN itself has already mentioned the possibility of an amendment which would prevent this tax increase, and the PS, for its part, is already talking about a draft amending finance law from January 2025, which would also make it possible to remedy this budgetary failure.
For her part, Pierrette calls out to the presidential camp: “The current National Assembly is the result of a Republican front between the first and second round of the legislative elections of June-July 2024. I do not understand why now the Macronists, who were very happy to have the votes of LFI , refuse to ally with the NFP?“. A direct allusion to Gabriel Attal, who mentioned for his part “a stability pact“with all the deputies, which would exclude the RN, but”which also does not go as far as LFI” specifies Aurélie Herbemont. “The worm was in the fruit from the startshe adds, we can consider that on the evening of the second round of the legislative elections, it was the Republican front which won. Except that very quickly, the left, arriving in front, claimed to govern somewhat alone“. Very probably also, a strategy on the part of Gabriel Attal, for “fracture the new Popular Front” adds, for his part, Benjamin Morel. “Wishful thinking“according to the constitutionalist, to the extent that the Socialists cannot leave the alliance:”if I am a socialist candidate tomorrow, faced with a rebel, in one case out of two I am dead“. Little point, therefore, in taking the risk of losing one's seats for the next dissolution.
This political crisis, and this blockage, does this not mean that it is “time to change the constitution?” Philippe finally asks the switchboard. “Think about a reform of institutions, the constitutionalist is delightedjokes Benjamin Morel, but in the very short term, we must above all manage to have a budget, and detach a majority“. Certain institutional reforms, which Benjamin Morel calls for, could “make the system more fluid, but that doesn't solve the problem” he concludes.
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