Here’s what you need to know to better understand these results:
The participation
This is a key figure. Participation was 47.5% in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections, it should be 63% on Sunday according to the Ipsos polling institute and 67%, according to Ifop in its latest daily survey on the vote, published Friday .
This figure will have a direct impact on the proportion of the 577 deputies who will be elected in the first round and also on the number of potential three-way or even four-way races that will take place in the second round on July 7. These confrontations between three or even four candidates are sources of uncertainty about the outcome of the election.
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Those elected in the 1st round
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of the votes cast but also the votes of at least a quarter of the voters registered in the constituency.
In 2022, only five deputies were elected in the first round. The leader of the RN Marine Le Pen or the current coordinator of La France insoumise Manuel Bompard had obtained an absolute majority in the first round but had to contest a second round, having not reached the threshold of 25% of those registered.
Sunday evening, dozens of deputies could be elected in the first round, up to 80 or 100, mostly National Rally candidates, according to electoral experts.
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The triangular ones
The high turnout will also affect another threshold imposed by the electoral code: it is necessary to have collected the votes of 12.5% of registered voters to be able to remain in the second round.
There were only eight three-way races in 2022. According to Brice Teinturier, deputy chairman of Ipsos, this time there will potentially be up to 200 to 250 three-way races in the second round.
The number of possible quadrangulars is difficult to predict but it should remain very low.
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Disclaimers
The large number of potential triangulars makes the question of vote carryovers and withdrawals all the more crucial.
Socialists, ecologists and communists called for the withdrawals of the least well-placed candidates – from the left, from the Macronist camp, or from the right-wing Les Républicains party – in order to block the National Rally.
The Macronist camp and La France insoumise (LFI) have not yet taken a clear position on the withdrawals but promise instructions from Sunday evening. The current presidential majority is particularly hesitant to withdraw its representatives in favor of rebellious candidates in the name of a principle of “neither RN nor LFI”.
Very short deadlines
In this campaign carried out at full speed since the dissolution of the National Assembly by the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron on June 9, the deadlines are extremely short. And the parties will have to make their decisions very quickly.
The candidates will have until Tuesday 6:00 p.m. to submit their application files to the prefecture for the second round next Sunday.
