The arrival of the extreme right in power in France is no longer worthy of a fictional scenario. All the polls in fact give a very comfortable lead to the National Rally. Strengthened by the fringe of the Republicans allied with Eric Ciotti, the extreme right party is credited Friday with 36% of voting intentions by Elabe, as for Ifop and Ipsos.
The campaign, which ends Friday at midnight in France as part of the first round of the legislative elections, gives the far right as the big favorite, a prelude to a possible victory on July 7. It was in an electric atmosphere that the candidates of the different parties tried to lead a lightning campaign during which French citizens did not always fully understand the benefits, if they exist, of the dissolution of the National Assembly.
Furthermore, it is not certain that the RN can benefit from an absolute majority.”
With the impression of a form of disappearance of “Macronism” and of an ever stronger divide between an extreme right bloc on one side and an extreme left bloc on the other.
“The RN has never been so close to exercising power at the national level and entering Matignon, estimates political scientist Benjamin Biard, researcher at the Center for Sociopolitical Research and Information (CRISP). The dynamic is indeed quite favorable to them according to the latest figures. We can also see that the interest of the French in going to vote is more important to block the extreme left rather than to block the rise of the extreme right, according to the polls and studies carried out in recent days. We can therefore see that this logic of blocking the RN a priori is not as strong as in the past”.
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The specter of “ungovernability”
Despite its large lead, the left united under the banner of the New Popular Front remains distanced between 27.5% and 29%, and the outgoing presidential majority relegated between 19.5% and 21%, the RN is however not assured of having an absolute majority at the end of the second round, knowing that a strong turnout is expected: nearly two out of three voters plan to go and vote, compared to less than one in two in the 2022 legislative elections.
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And not everything will be decided on Sunday, because there will also be a lot of three-way races, for potentially 200, or even 240 constituencies in this scenario. Unless those least well placed on the left or in the center opt for a republican withdrawal in the face of the extreme right. An option especially defended within the New Popular Front, where environmentalists, socialists and communists have made it known that their candidates who came in third place would withdraw. At this stage, it is therefore not a given that the RN will be able to benefit from an absolute majority. And it is also quite plausible that no party will be able to obtain it. For what consequences?
“Permanent political instability with the specter of ungovernabilityreplies the man who is also a specialist in the extreme right. This is a prospect that cannot be ruled out and that would make the country more difficult to govern with negotiations to be conducted with the other parties, major blockages, issues that are not moving forward and therefore compromises to be found, which is a Belgian know-how but not necessarily a quality among our French neighbours. They are indeed less of a coalition player, which risks making the exercise of taking power less comfortable. This is also why we heard Marine Le Pen call for Emmanuel Macron to resign in the event of defeat, which I find hard to imagine given that he will not be able to run again in 2027 anyway.”.
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Let us also remember that even with a victory for the RN in the legislative elections, the entry of Jordan Bardella into Matignon has not been recorded. To avoid risking censorship in the Assembly, the president of the far-right party has in fact set the condition of obtaining an absolute majority. What is not won, but what we do know, is that France will witness an unprecedented restructuring of its political landscape.
