France begins its last week of campaigning on Monday before the first round of legislative elections described as the most important since 1945, of which the far right is today the favorite ahead of a fragile union of the left.
The majority camp of President Emmanuel Macron, criticized from all sides for having dissolved the National Assembly, appears to be the most weakened of the three forces called upon to compete, the day after the second round of July 7, for the formation of a government .
The National Rally (RN, far right) and its allies would obtain between 35.5 and 36% of the votes, two Elabe and Ipsos polls indicated on Sunday.
They are ahead of the New Popular Front, an alliance of left-wing parties (27 to 29.5%), united for the occasion despite deep fundamental differences. The majority in power only comes in third position (19.5 to 20%), to which are added the Republicans opposed to the RN (7 to 10%).
The far right is pleading for a ‘political alternation’ with an ‘absolute majority’, according to the RN mayor of Perpignan (south-east) Louis Aliot on public radio France Inter. Otherwise, ‘there will be measures which will not be immediately applicable’. Marine Le Pen’s party must unveil on Monday the ‘priorities of the government of national unity’ that it intends to establish.
The left alliance remains mired in speculation around its very divisive candidate for the post of Prime Minister, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head of the radical left La France Insoumise (LFI).
‘If he wants to be of service to the New Popular Front, he must step aside, keep quiet,’ said ex-socialist president François Hollande, candidate in Corrèze (center).
‘Social choice’
The appointment of Mr. Mélenchon as Prime Minister ‘was never the subject of an agreement’, affirmed for his part the national secretary of the French Communist Party, Fabien Roussel.
Accused of being disconnected from the concerns of the French, the Macronist camp for its part promises more collaborative governance. Mr Macron appeared to rule out any resignation, promising ‘to act until May 2027’, the end of his mandate, and admitting that ‘the way of governing (should) change profoundly’.
‘The future government, which will necessarily reflect your vote, will bring together, I hope, the republicans of various sensibilities who will have known how to (…) oppose the extremes,’ he pleaded in a letter to the French distributed in the press.
‘There will be (…) a before and an after’, insisted Gabriel Attal in unison on the set of the RTL/M6/Le Figaro Grand Jury. Appointed only in January, the head of government argues that his bloc is ‘the most dynamic in this campaign’, after having collected only 14.6% of the votes in the European elections.
‘It’s a choice of government and society,’ he insisted, waiting for ‘additional legitimization’ to remain in his post. The majority is seeking a path between a unifying tone at the center and offensive remarks against the economic programs of its adversaries.
Edouard Philippe, former Prime Minister of Mr. Macron, calls on ‘those who want to come, from the conservative right to the social-democratic left’, when Mr. Attal warns against ‘economic and social carnage’ which would result ‘in a tax bludgeoning on one side or the other’.
The outcome of the vote, between the specter of the first far-right government in the history of the country, and a National Assembly dominated by three irreconcilable poles for a minimum of a year, worries in France and abroad, on against the backdrop of a gloomy economic situation and war in Ukraine, and one month before the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
Tens of thousands of people demonstrated on Sunday in several cities in France against the ‘danger’ for women’s rights that an RN victory would represent.
A collective of 170 diplomats and former diplomats published a petition in the daily Le Monde against a scenario which would ‘weaken France and Europe while the war is here’.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he was ‘concerned’ by this prospect, hoping for a victory for ‘parties which are not that of (Marine) Le Pen’.
/ATS
