The first polls are also catastrophic for the LR. If they had obtained 61 seats following the legislative elections in June 2022, they could soon lose half of them, or even more. They are credited with only 7% according to the latest Legitrack barometer from OpinionWay – Vae Solis for The echoes and Classic Radio, released Saturday.
The Republicans’ wait-and-see attitude
For Emilien Houard-Vial, teacher at Sciences Po Paris and doctoral student at the Center for European Studies, The Republicans, caught between the macronie and the RN, have become masters in the art of procrastination. “They are stuck between two camps and they have long chosen not to choose; a decision that is very damaging in the long term. It is possible that the LRs waited too long, that they let the situation deteriorate too much. I think they don’t know how to do it, but they will have to decide, either strategically or ideologically. The postures are very nice, but what opposes the LRs to the macronie? The sociology of Republican voters is still very similar to that of the presidential camp.”
A good number of right-wing personalities had already changed sides: Gérald Darmanin, Edouard Philippe, Bruno Le Maire, Jean Castex, Christophe Béchu… As for those who joined the RN, they were fewer in number and less known: Thierry Mariani and Jean-Paul Garraud.
“What Éric Ciotti did is quite logical”, analysis Emilien Houard-Vial. “He saw that the Republicans were in an impasse, and being in opposition was depriving him of the political career he believes he should have.”
In Clichy-sous-Bois, the certainty of vain anger, as in 2005: “In fact, nothing has changed, it has even gotten worse.”
The psychodrama created by Éric Ciotti should, however, encourage the right to think about its future. This was also the comment of one of its executives, Jean Jeanbrun. “Basically, it does us a service, it allows for immediate clarification of things. There are more than 25,000 of us elected to the Republicans. For now, Mr Ciotti left with four friends, maximum, and it allowed us to recall the fundamental rules: we are not the allies of the National Rally. We fight them, we will always fight them.”
LR barons like the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher also stressed that it was out of the question to accept the outstretched hand of Emmanuel Macron. “We will go under our colors, autonomous, independent”he declared Thursday evening on TF1.
An orchestra but different scores
But very quickly, the LRs fell back into their ways, generating great confusion.
In Hauts-de-Seine, the presidential majority and LR signed a local non-aggression pact on Friday. The two camps will not compete in the thirteen constituencies of this department, where Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, Minister of Foreign Affairs Stéphane Séjourné and government spokesperson Prisca Thévenot are candidates.
“The masks are falling”immediately reacted Guilhem Carayon, the president of the pro-Ciotti Young LR threatened with exclusion, “disgusted” by this agreement, which was quickly denounced by the national level of the Republicans. “We will remain in extremely clear opposition to Emmanuel Macron. We will therefore have candidates, and good ones, including against Attal and Séjourné”assured the Figaro François-Xavier Bellamy, now in charge of LR governance.
The head of the list in the European elections was also able to make remarks that were troubling for right-wing voters. Even though he had condemned the proposed alliance between LR and the RN, he indicated, Thursday on Europe 1, that he “would block rebellious France by voting of course” for the RN, in the event of a second round between an RN candidate and a New Popular Front candidate. This statement caused an outcry, even on the right, and François-Xavier Bellamy then attempted to backpedal. The day before, Gérard Larcher had also said that he would choose neither one nor the other, in the event of a duel between an RN candidate and an LFI candidate.
”The Republicans are no longer very numerous, they will probably soon be even fewer, but what we see immediately since Eric Ciotti’s decision is that they continue to act as if nothing was happening. ‘was”slide Emilien Houard-Vial. “The simplest outcome of the legislative elections for them would ultimately be an absolute majority of the RN because that way, they would not have to choose, to refuse positions offered by the RN to make up for it if it had a relative majority.”
France: a new political office of the Republicans validates the exclusion of Eric Ciotti
Concerning the longer term, Emilien Houard-Vial does not think that Les Républicains will disappear completely. “But they risk dying slowly and becoming one of those parties with local baronies and perhaps enough to make a small parliamentary group. After everything that has happened, I do not see by what miracle, by what magic, nor with what charismatic man or woman politician, they could reverse the trend and return to the forefront.”
