The leader of the Republicans dismissed from office, Marion Maréchal excluded from his party by Éric Zemmour, early legislative elections,… Let’s take stock of the political situation in France.
By dissolving the National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron explained that he wanted to clarify things. On a theoretical level, it holds up. Dissolution is the way to reshuffle the cards and start again on new bases. It has already worked in the past, in 1968 or even in 1997.
It’s different today
The difference is that at the time, there was a clear left-right divide in French politics. It was one or the other. The extremes had little or no say in the matter. Those days are over. We see this with the crisis shaking the Les Républicains party, once the backbone of the democratic right. Its president, Éric Ciotti, was excluded yesterday by his political office because he announced his support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.
However, historically, the Republicans have always been determined adversaries of the extreme right, according to a reading framework inherited from the Second World War. On one side, De Gaulle, on the other, Pétain. But this interpretation no longer works. It remains the reference for elites, but not for voters. And if 90% of Republican leaders reject Marine Le Pen, the base approves 50% of Eric Ciotti’s position. In short, the party is on the verge of explosion.
Same observation with Éric Zemmour, who wanted to be the true incarnation of the national right, against the National Rally. Yesterday, he fired Marion Maréchal, who went to join her aunt Marine Le Pen. On the left, things are also complicated.
A Popular Front
But on paper, at least, the four main parties have formed what they call a new Popular Front around the PS and Mélenchon’s Insoumis. But there too, it gets stuck around this personality. Even if last night, on television, Jean-Luc Mélenchon made a velvet mark.
In the middle of the anthill, Emmanuel Macron hopes, once again, to embody a great center which would appeal to a majority of French people. But does he still have the means? The first polls announce catastrophic results for his party and instead depict a match which would pit the National Rally against the popular front, with a clear advantage for the former.
No game is played until it has been played. And the president is counting on his talent, which worked so well in 2017. Except that in wanting to set the record straight, the master of clocks has above all disrupted the mechanics.
elections in France macron Le Pen Mélenchon ciotti Zemmour
