Warding off the threat of escalation in Ukraine

“Escalation”: like a leitmotif, the word punctuates the debate on the level of commitment of kyiv’s allies and the rhetoric of Vladimir Putin since the Russian president launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Fear of provoking a spiral likely to tip into conflict the countries which decided to help Ukraine defend itself against this aggression without being themselves at war was at the heart of their graduated assistance strategy. Putin, for his part, is using the specter of escalation as an instrument of intimidation to feed this fear, brandishing the threat in its most frightening form, that of the use of nuclear weapons.

President Emmanuel Macron favors another approach, which he again defended by receiving, on Friday June 7, his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, on an official visit to Paris the day after the ceremonies of the anniversary of the Normandy Landings. For him, France “is not at war with Russia” but must be able to keep the “climbing mastery”that’s to say “don’t let Russia impose its own limits”. In other words, having the initiative in the level of commitment of the allies alongside Ukraine, rather than giving the impression that it is the aggressor who determines, through his threats, the contours and the degree of this commitment . Do not leave the head of the Kremlin in control of the game. A corollary of this approach, the concept of “strategic ambiguity” aims to avoid exposing to Russia the limits that the allies set for themselves.

Mr. Macron thus announced, Thursday and Friday, several new measures to support the Ukrainian war effort, some of which are long-term: the supply of Mirage 2000-5 fighter planes, whose pilots and mechanics will be trained immediately; the training and equipping of a Ukrainian brigade, or around 4,500 soldiers; the creation of a coalition of countries which will send instructors to train Ukrainian forces on the ground, without taking part in the fighting.

The President of the Republic also announced the establishment in Ukraine of a structure of the Franco-German arms conglomerate KNDS to co-produce munitions locally, and the creation of a support fund of 200 million euros for infrastructure, particularly energy, targets of a Russian policy of systematic destruction.

Strict framework of international law

A few days after having decided to authorize the Ukrainians to use French missiles to strike the bases in Russian territory from which the attacks against Kharkiv originate, Mr. Macron thus poses himself as leader of European commitment alongside Ukraine , even if in quantity this assistance is much lower than that of the United States and Germany. Mr. Putin is not mistaken, who is increasing the manifestations of hostility towards Paris. Mr. Macron sees in these “signs of nervousness” from the Kremlin confirmation of the correctness of its strategy, and recalls that international law authorizes Ukraine to defend itself: Western aid falls within this strict framework.

It is Russian aggression that provokes increased European commitment, not the other way around. But this commitment must be able to rely on the broadest political and diplomatic support. The image of a half-deserted National Assembly on Friday, when the president of a country at war to which France was helping was speaking there was disastrous in this respect – and worrying.